NFL Week 18 picks: You Think It Doesn’t Matter?

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

I keep hearing that Week 18 games in the NFL don’t matter. I hear the players are either backing the moving vans up to the gates or far more worried about the playoffs. I hear teams and players are far more worried about getting hurt and losing millions.

Well, the Detroit Lions are worried about none of those things. Dan Campbell only knows one way to play – to win. And, in Detroit, Campbell’s way has been very successful (although to win in the playoffs the Lions will have to play MUCH better defense). Other teams have different approaches with mixed results.

Last year, in their last game of the regular season, the Philadelphia Eagles played A.J. Brown in what was then a “meaningless” game. Brown got hurt in that game and was unavailable for the Eagles’ playoff game against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense and the Eagles lost. This year, the Eagles say (as of today) that running back Saquon Barkley will not play this week against the New York Giants.

This is a much different situation. The kindest way I can think of to describe the Giants run defense is sieve-like. Barkley only needs 101 yards to set the all time NFL single season rushing record. If I were Barkley and that close to a very pertinent all time NFL record, I would want to get it. For his part, Barkley has expressed a desire to play but, so far, a willingness to accept a bench relegation. 

Before anyone says that just playing guarantees Barkley the all time record, consider that the Eagles are not playing a Pop Warner football team in the New York Giants. Not only that, but the Giants, as Saquon Barkley’s former employer, certainly have no desire to let Barkley attain the record against them. In fact, if I were the Giants I would commit my entire defense to stopping Saquon Barkley.

Still, it’s the all time record…

Other players and teams have a huge stake in this weekend’s games. The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will play Sunday night for the #1 seed in the NFC. The winner gets a bye the first week of the playoffs and home field advantage in the NFC. The loser gets a #5 seed, no guarantee of any home field games and no bye. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Denver Broncos are both probably in a win or go home game. The Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins must win and hope for help to make the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders and San Diego Chargers are still fighting for better playoff seeds. And the players on all teams want to win…don’t forget that these guys are professionals fighting for their professional lives.

And there are a lot of players with great financial incentives, too, according to Tyler Sullivan writing for cbssports.com.  Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray needs 50 rushing yards plus one rushing TD to earn $750,000 more, and teammate Zavon Collins is one sack away from $300,000. Baltimore Ravens’ linebacker (and Reno McQueen High School grad) Kyle Van Noy will make another $250,000 with just a half sack. Buffalo Bills linebacker Von Miller will earn $1.5 million more with just one more sack, while fellow Bills Taron Johnson needs an interception for $250,000 and DaQuon Jones a half sack for $250,000. Bengals’ TE Mike Gesicki will make $125,000 more with just 3 receiving yards. The Cowboys’ Linval Joseph is just a sack away from a $100,000 bonus. Courtland Sutton will earn $2 million more with 82 receiving yards. Joe Mixon will get an extra $250,000 with 107 rushing yards. The Chargers’ will owe Kristian Fulton $125,000 more with one interception, J.K. Dobbins $100,000 more with 58 rushing yards, and Bud Dupree $250,000 more with one sack. The Dolphins’ Tyrel Dodson and Calais Campbell each need one sack for an additional $300,000 while teammate Emmanuel Ogbah gets a $500,000 bonus with 1.5 sacks. In spite of all the chaos around the New York Jets, this game is important to both Tyler Conklin (1 catch for $250,000) and Javon Kinlaw (half sack for $250,000). Don’t tell Seahawks QB Geno Smith this game is meaningless-he needs 185 passing yards for a jaw dropping $2 million bonus. The Bucs outstanding wideout Mike Evans will pocket an extra $3 million if he can catch 5 passes for 85 yards. The Tennessee Titans may just be playing out the string, but Tony Pollard (83 rushing yards for $250,00 and $200,00 on top of that for 2 rushing TDs) Kenneth Murray (half sack for $250,000) and Arden Key (1.5 sacks for $500,000) are sure to show up. Finally, some Washington Commanders are playing for much more than seeding – Dorance Armstrong wants to get 1 sack for $250,000, Dante Fowler needs a half sack for $375,000, and veteran Zach Ertz would get $250,000 for nine catches, another $250,000 for 90 receiving yards and an additional $250,000 for 2 receiving TDs (what if he gets a rushing TD?) 

So, even though maybe it’s not everybody all in, there is a lot to play for.

The question for me is, how will all this affect my picks. I’m staying away from my Lions, not because of any incentives but because of bad defense. When teams play matters, and that’s why I like the Bengals who play Saturday, avoiding the let down they will have on Sunday when the Broncos win. The Dolphins and Broncos, competing for the only AFC playoff spot left, play at the same time. The Dolphins play on the road while the Broncos are at home, which I think will matter because home teams control their own scoreboards, which the players see. As for individual bonuses, I have no idea and I guess you’re going to have to decide on a case by case basis.

So, now that I have established that these games matter (more to some individuals and teams than others) here are my picks for Week #18 against the spread. Lines are from espn.com on Thursday, Jan 2.

Cincinnati Bengals (-2 ½) at Pittsburgh Steelers: The Bengals have more incentives than the Steelers.

Atlanta Falcons (-7 1/2) vs Carolina Panthers: The Falcons play at the same time as the Bucs, but the Falcons control the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13 1/2) vs New Orleans Saints: Although the Saints looked bad 10 days ago on Monday night and usually that’s a sure incentive, I don’t think they have enough to compete on the NFL level right now.

Buffalo Bills (-2 ½) at New England Patriots: No Drake Maye? Oh, no…

Dallas Cowboys (+6 ½) vs Washington Commanders: The Cowboys are still playing hard, and they may have saved Mike McCarthy’s job.

Miami Dolphins (-1) at New York Jets: Too bad the scoreboard operator doesn’t block, tackle, or catch passes because the Jets stink at those things.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4) vs San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have little incentive and the Raiders play hard, especially at home.

Last week 4-2

Season 49-52-2

Robert’s picks

Buffalo and Liberty over 51: I haven’t bet many bowl games, because it’s difficult to know which teams care about winning and which don’t. Despite what fans think, a lot of coaches and players generally don’t think of bowl games as big games. For coaches the extra 15 practices are an early start on spring practice and setting a roster for next season, and for a lot of players, the bowl week activities, not the game itself, are the reward for their season. This line went from Liberty -2 ½ to Buffalo -3 when Liberty quarterback Kaiden Salter entered the transfer portal. But only eight teams in the country pass the ball less often than Liberty and Buffalo’s defense allowed 405.8 yards per game this season. Seven of Buffalo’s last eight games went over and now they get out of frigid Buffalo to play in the Bahamas. Points should be plentiful.

Panthers (+8) at Falcons: This is a textbook late-season situation that we see in the NFL all the time. One team is out of the playoffs, the other needs a win and some help to get in. But as we see every year, must win does not equal will win. Teams that must win in the last week of the season to make the playoffs are usually pretty mediocre teams, yet there is always a few points added to the line because they must win. The Panthers have made legitimate progress in the last half of the season and fit the profile of the kind of team that plays hard in the last game of the season. Overpriced mediocre favorite versus an underdog that will fight for 60 minutes in the last game of the season is a formula that pays or more often than not.

Dolphins (-1) at Jets: It’s hard to guess sometimes which teams are going to go hard on the last game and which teams are ready to head to warmer climates. The Jets don’t seem like the kind of team that’s going to muster a lot of energy for one last stand. I’ve filled my bucket five or six times betting against the Jets, I’ll dip it back in the well one last time.

49ers (+4 ½) over Cardinals: The 49ers are a shell of the team that started the season, but even then it was obvious something was wrong and I even told a friend way back in Week 3 or 4 that I didn’t think they were a playoff team. But even with a depleted roster they haven’t laid down, but just didn’t have enough to hold off the Lions last week. Now they end the season without Brock Purdy, but Josh Dobbs has said this is a big game for him as he auditions for a job somewhere next week, and the 49ers have young players like Ricky Pearsall and Isaac Guerendo who are trying to make an impression, and you know you’re getting a top effort every time from guys like George Kittle and Juaun Jennings. The 49ers will put points on the board and I’ll take the points in a game I think they’re better than 50-50 to win outright.

Last week

College 2-1

NFL 1-2

Season

College 34-32

NFL 30-19-1