By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
In 1965, the Byrds released their version of Pete Seeger’s song that he called, “To Everything There Is a Season” and the Byrds called, “Turn, Turn, Turn.” That song’s lyrics, except for the title and the last two lines, is taken directly from the Biblical Book of Ecclesiastes, and describes that there is a time for everything, “...under heaven”.
Today, we call the time when factors line up to create a favorable outcome as a “Window of Opportunity.” This metaphor compares the right time to a window - it’s open, but it can also close and then the timing is not as favorable.
The chances of winning a championship in athletics is often described as a window of opportunity - that brief time when a competitor, or a team, has many factors in its favor to win. The problem is, no competitor can completely control how long that window will remain open. Even worse, frequently the competitors don’t even know if that problematic window is open at all.
In professional sports, recognizing when your window is open or closed is a skill that, along with talent recognition, go a very long way towards long term success as an organization. When should a team add to an existing group, and when do you tear it all down and start again?
Next year will mark 10 years since the Pittsburgh Steelers last won a playoff game, although they have at least made the playoffs four of those years. Many of those playoff games have been ugly for the black and gold, but at least they got there, right?
Although the Baltimore Ravens have made the playoffs eight of the last 14 years, they have not won more than one playoff game since they last won the Super Bowl after the 2012 season. This year, despite having what many believed to be the best roster of any AFC team, the Ravens finished below .500 and did not make the playoffs.
The Buffalo Bills have made the AFC playoffs the last seven years, but only reached the AFC Conference Championship game once in that time, and they lost a heartbreaker that year to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills' teams have a recent history of tough playoff losses, many of them to the Kansas City Chiefs. Bills’ QB Josh Allen, last season’s NFL MVP, is recognized as one of the NFL’s leading stars.
All three of the above mentioned teams are, at this writing, looking for a new head coach. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin resigned, while Buffalo and Baltimore both fired their well-respected head coaches. At the start of this year, most everyone had at least two of these squads (Baltimore’s and Buffalo’s) as top five NFL teams and Pittsburgh had a lot of hope because of the arrival of Aaron Rodgers. At season’s end, only one of the three even won a playoff game, one (PIttsburgh) was embarrassed in their playoff game and Baltimore didn’t even win half their games. What happened?
Baltimore had a lot of defensive injuries early in the year, and that contributed to a nearly season destroying 1-5 start. But even when we were told the Ravens were healthy they could not put everything together and win when they had to.
Unlike prior great Steeler teams, the 2025 version struggled running the ball and stopping the run. Combine that with a receiver group that spent a lot of the year MIA receiving passes from a 42-year-old quarterback that made a statue look mobile and you don’t have a recipe for success no matter who the coach is.
The Bills did not win the AFC East for the first time since 2019, although they had a very good 12-5 record. After an impressive win in the Wild Card round against a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team, the Bills again came up short in an overtime loss to the Denver Broncos, dropping QB Josh Allen’s overtime record to 0-7. It appeared that there was plenty of blame to go around for that loss, despite Josh Allen’s acceptance of responsibility.
From an outsider looking in, it appears to me that the Buffalo Bills do not want to follow in the recent footsteps of the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. I think it is time for a complete teardown in both Pittsburgh and Baltimore, while Buffalo’s window still appears open to me. Maybe the Buffalo Bills, by changing coaches, will find their elusive championship like the Chicago Bulls did by hiring Phil Jackson and the Tampa Bay Bucs did by hiring Jon Gruden.
But you know, maybe it’s just a matter of luck. If the officials’ penalty calls were different and Brandin Cooks held onto a 50-50 ball, the results of the game last week certainly would have been different and now we would be talking about the new greatest coach - Sean McDermott. For that matter, if the Ravens still had Justin Tucker, they, and not the Steelers, would have been in the playoffs. Parity in the NFL is real, and the difference between winning and losing is tiny.
The parity in the NFL makes it much tougher to discern when a team’s window of opportunity is open and when it’s closed. Other teams in the NFL like the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins all must decide this off-season if their windows are open or closed, and act accordingly. NFL GM’s jobs depend on it.
Two overtime losses made for a 2-2 record last week. Not good, but better than the 0-6 of the week before. A low bar, to be sure. Only three NFL games left, and two of them are this week. Here are my picks. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Jan. 20.
Denver Broncos (+5 ½) vs New England Patriots: If this were not a conference championship game, I would not make a prediction. I probably won’t bet it. Denver is a good team no matter who is playing QB and Sean Payton has a whole week to get Jarrett Stidham ready. The problem is, New England has a good defense and they won’t make it easy. Five-and- a-half points and the home field make me lean Denver’s way.
Los Angeles Rams (+2 ½) at Seattle Seahawks: I really hate to say it, but God seems to be on the Rams’ side. I’m goin’ with the Big Guy.
Last week 2-2
Season 65-62
Robert’s picks
Broncos (+4) over Patriots: I wish I’d gotten the line when it was 5 ½ like Jim did, but I’m writing this later in the week and the line is currently -4. However, had Bo Nix not gotten injured against the Bills, the Broncos would have been favored. A bookmaker friend told me he expected the line to be Broncos -3. If so, then the question is whether Nix is worth that many points in the line. If you believe Nix is the reason the Broncos are here, then I guess the answer is yes. He certainly has to be one of the reasons, but even though he’s out, the other reasons still apply. I would have expected a dogfight in this game, and Nix being out doesn’t change that for me.
Seahawks (-2 ½) over Rams: With Matthew Stafford over Sam Darnold, the Rams probably have a clear advantage at quarterback. Darnold wasn’t needed to do much last week, but his other playoff performance last season with the Vikings was pretty bad, so I’m not real confident in him. But I’ll ride the Seahawks defense and home field advantage and figure the Rams aren’t going to repeat the 581 yards and 37 points they got a month ago in Seattle.
Last week
College 1-0
NFL2-2
Season
College 27-25-1
NFL 28-32-1
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