By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
“You can’t make chicken salad out of chicken poop”.
“Let sleeping dogs lie”.
“The squeaky wheel gets the grease”.
“Still waters run deep”.
“No use crying over spilled milk”.
“Don’t bite the hand that feeds you”.
“Dance with who you came with”.
And on and on. There are many, many more old sayings, and most of them have some meaning today. Something I can relate to, just because something is old doesn’t mean it’s useless.
My mom raised us on sayings like the ones above, and many more. If one of us was late, she would say, “The early bird gets the worm”. If I overreacted to something, she would say, “Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.” When yet another potential girlfriend dumped me, “There’s plenty of fish in the sea”. When she observed that I seemed to prefer donuts to fruit and caught a cold, I heard, “An apple a day keeps the doctor away.”
Back then, I showed my lack of maturity by rolling my eyes but today I would give all the money I have to hear her say one more wisdom-filled saying.
I worked with many people who also employed timely old sayings. One colleague was fond of saying, “Only the names change” when we saw the same things happening year after year. When the District or inept administrator mandated something we believed stupid, it was sure that someone would say, “You can’t fight city hall." Administrators loved to say, “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” as he/she advocated for a teacher to call a disruptive student’s parents. In the teachers’ lounge at the end of the day, “Another day, another dollar” was noise that seemed to be set to permanent replay. And, crazy student behavior was always blamed on “A full moon.”
Sports not only have these sayings, you cannot listen to any interview of any individual connected with sports without hearing at least one. “We play them one game at a time,” “they put on their pants one leg at a time,” “I’m just doing what’s best for me and my family” are big ones, with the last particularly popular among athletes fighting management for 400 million dollars instead of 350 million dollars.
Football, like all the other sports, has a group of sayings and not all of them have the sense of my mother’s old sayings. “He sees the whole field,” as opposed to someone who is blind, I guess, “It doesn’t matter who you play, it’s when you play them,” and the infamous, “On to Cincinnati" comes to mind immediately, although there are many more.
But the saying I like the most is, “Defense wins championships” because, in spite of the NFL’s best efforts, this one is true. Even with the many rule changes and interpretations that almost always favor the offense and coaches that are willing to gamble more than my wife when she plays video poker, scoring in NFL games over the years has only increased by less than 10% over the last 50 years. When you consider that I remember when a 50-yard field goal was virtually unheard of and now NFL kickers make them at a rate of over 50%, that’s incredible. Even more incredible when you consider that many coaches now go by the saying, “6 points is more than 3” whenever their offense enters the red zone. I would counter that old saying with one (I think) of my own, “3 points is more than none”.
Don’t misunderstand what I am saying. I don’t think a team needs the best defense to win a championship. If that were the case, the champion this year would be either Denver or Houston. But you need a good defense more than you need a good offense or good special teams, although the best scenario would be to be good in all three.
So, as we enter the NFL playoffs this year, who has the championship defense?
According to Fox Sports, which ranked NFL defenses by how many yards per game (YPG) (which I agree has many faults) the two best defenses this year in the NFL were Houston and Denver, in that order. The problem is, Houston has an offense that is suspect at best and Denver seems to think that only the 4th Quarter counts. To me, San Francisco, Buffalo, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Carolina don’t have championship defenses, even though Buffalo is ranked in the top 10 in YPG defense. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Rams, whom I think is the 2nd best team in the NFL, have a defense ranked in the bottom half of league YPG. Sometimes I have to trust my eyes more than statistics. Remember, figures lie and liars figure. (yet another old saying)
With all that being said, I believe that defense this year will again decide who wins the Super Bowl. Certainly, the Philadelphia Eagles have proven that their defense can win games against good offenses. In spite of their ranking, I believe the Rams can, too. While the two best defenses this year, Houston and Denver, are in the AFC, I already mentioned Houston’s offense and Denver’s incredible 11-2 record in one score games make picking either of those teams problematic for me. I’ll go way out on a limb and pick the Jacksonville Jaguars as the AFC’s representative in Santa Clara this year. We’ll see.
And always remember this is the NFL, and how parity is a reality in that league. Maybe the 49ers and the Bills will suddenly be able to stop the run. Maybe the Bears and the Broncos will continue their late game magic. It’s possible Green Bay will play the kind of defense I thought they would all season, not just against Detroit. Maybe Aaron Rodgers has one more championship run in him. Heck, even 8-9 Carolina COULD, but probably won’t, win it all.
But no matter who wins, it’ll be because their defense was good when it needed to be.
I wish I could bet on that.
Last week’s 4-2 record was good from 30,000 feet, but two of my picks won my bet without winning their games and how could ANYONE have picked the Cowboys? Only two back door covers saved my week. Oh, well, I’ll try again this week. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Jan. 6.
LA Rams (-10) at Carolina Panthers: If Carolina can exploit the Rams' corners with their big wideouts like they did a couple of weeks ago, this bet will be in trouble. I think that Bryce Young will most likely be too busy running for his life to see what his wideouts are doing.
Green Bay Packers (-1 ½) at Chicago Bears: I hope my house doesn’t get egged for this, but the Bears have been lucky this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1 ½) vs Buffalo: The only way the Bills win this one is if Josh Allen is Superman.
Philadelphia Eagles (-4 ½) vs SF 49ers: The 49ers' run defense was seriously exposed last week, and now they go against Saquon Barkley.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3 ½) at New England Patriots: I don’t think the Pats pass rush can exploit the Chargers’ offensive tackle woes. This one was the toughest pick of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) vs Houston Texans: Another tough one, because the Texans are hot and the Steelers unpredictable. I can’t give any logical reasons, sorry. My only defense of a pick without reasons is that if the Steelers win, I was right. If the Steelers lose, I’m happy cuz I don’t like ‘em.
Last week 4-2
Season 63-54
Robert’s picks
Miami, Fla. (-3) vs Mississippi: I really messed up by not betting this right away when the line came out and I could have laid 2, but I did get it before it went up to 3 ½. Hopefully it will come back to at least 3 for those who didn’t. I also bet Miami to win the national championship. I wish I had bet that before last week’s game, but at that time I thought if they beat Ohio St., they’d be playing Georgia, and I didn’t think their championship odds matched up with how much of an underdog they would have been to Georgia. In this matchup, I think they can put up enough points against Ole Miss, and this line just requires them to get one more stop than the Rebels, and with the much better defense, I think that’s reasonable.
Indiana vs. Oregon (No pick): I’m not betting this game, but I’m definitely interested in it, and I have plenty of thoughts. For one, I was wrong about both of these teams last week, or more precisely, I was wrong about both of their opponents. Indiana is the only team in the two years of the 12-team playoff to win after a first-round bye, but like I said last week, I think that’s more of a seeding issue than a bye issue. In fact, while the team with the bye is now 1-7, the favorite in those games is 6-2, so that alone tells you the wrong teams are getting the byes. I was very impressed with Indiana last week, not because of how they beat Alabama, but because historically underdog programs or franchises usually struggle when they become favorites, and Indiana has thrived in that role. Very unusual. I don’t know if they can beat Oregon a second time, but I also don’t know if Oregon can beat them. Can’t wait to watch it, but won’t bet it.
Packers (-1 ½) over Bears: I lost both of the previous matchups between these teams, so of course I’ve got to give it another shot. Like the first two, this will probably come down to the final minutes. Packers have lost four in a row, Bears two in a row, but I have more faith in Green Bay.
Bills (pk) at Jaguars: I bet the Bills at pick ‘em on Wednesday, and it’s simply a bet on Josh Allen. The resilience the Bills showed a couple of weeks ago against New England, coupled with the fact that this year they don’t have to face the Chiefs, and I actually think this is the year the Bills finally win the AFC.
Eagles (-4 ½) over 49ers: Too many other things requiring my attention kept me from being able to bet the Eagles at the opening line of 3 ½, but unless they just play as lethargic as they sometimes have looked this season, I don’t see the pointspread mattering. The Eagles either run the ball down the 49ers throats, convert third and fourth downs all day long and control the ball for 35-40 minutes, or they lay a total egg and lose the game. I’ve been saying all season long I don’t even think the 49ers are any better than they were last year when they were 6-11, even though they are 12-5. The 49ers only have a chance to win if the Eagles give the game away.
Last week
College 1-3
NFL 2-1
Season
College 25-25-1
NFL 25-28-1
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