NFL Week 11 picks: Prognostications

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter



The problem is, predictions can be a double edged sword because, although predictions are correct sometimes, they are also wrong many times. 



We were also introduced to something called the “margin of error”, which, depending on the poll, was plus or minus (??) 4%. According to the Associated Press on Tuesday, Nov. 12, Donald Trump had approximately 3.3 million more votes than Kamala Harris out of approximately 150 million votes cast nationally, with counting about 95% complete. We have been told that this election was a landslide for Trump, but the polls would argue that they actually had it right, since, as of now, Trump’s margin of victory was by about 2.2%, well within the margin of error. So, pollsters will celebrate correctly calling the election right.



So, political polling is useless and fruitless.



I guess weathermen and women do not want to use the word “error” in their forecasts, so, instead of “margin of error” they use percentages. Monday, on KOLO 8 weather, the forecast was for a 70% chance of rain in Reno. It did rain, and I wonder if we should credit the 70% that had it right or blame the 30% that had it wrong? I wanted to play golf that day, and I know for sure the course would have given me 0% of my money back had I gone out and got caught in the 70%.



Since this is a football, not a political, column, I don’t even want to begin getting into incorrect political prognostications. But, I think most people would agree that politicians are worse than pollsters or weathermen at incorrect future forecasts. 



And that brings me to the purpose of this column-predicting football winners. Remember back in the 90’s when individuals were actually selling their football picks? These “services” took a big hit when it was revealed that some of these people actually picked different teams to win the same game, and the pick you got depended on how much you paid. The best part of these unscrupulous dealers was the ad pitch where, if their pick was wrong, they would give you another pick for free! I have proven that I can incorrectly pick games on my own, why would I pay for someone else to get it wrong for me? And then to compound the mistake by using another pick from a “service” that has just been proven incompetent? I guess PT Barnum was only partially right because I don’t see or hear anything from football pickers anymore.



More than anything else, predictions depend on information, and incorrect information will generally lead to a bad prediction. 



Wednesday, the Indianapolis Colts announced that Anthony Richardson would replace Joe Flacco as starting quarterback this Sunday, and that Richardson would remain the Colts’ starting signal caller for the rest of the year.



Would you have predicted Donald Trump would be elected President in 2024 back in 2021? How many of you predicted in 2017 that Patrick Mahomes would arguably be the greatest QB in NFL history? I’m sure everyone knew back in 2021 when the Detroit Lions hired Brad Holmes that he would make the moves to lead the Lions to the NFL Network’s #1 rated team by 2024, right? And you KNEW Urban Meyer would be a disaster as an NFL coach before the Jaguars hired him. And that Aaron Rodgers would fall short as a New York Jet, the LIV Gold Tour would be great then fall, Hamas would attack Israel and cause unspeakable horror, Ukraine would hold on fighting against Russia, and that the Pandemic would actually help golf?



I will now prove that I don’t always do smart things by making some predictions for the rest of the NFL season. Kirk Cousins will not last the season as the Atlanta Falcons’ starting quarterback. I say this because Cousins, like Aaron Rodgers, suffered a season ending Achilles injury last season. The reason I think Cousins, and not Rodgers, will be replaced is that the Falcons have a replacement in Michael Penix, whom the Falcons drafted 8th overall in last year’s draft. Also, Cousins, like Rodgers, is a statue in the pocket and an injury waiting to happen.



The Detroit Lions will finally, after 57 years of waiting, make this year’s Super Bowl, although the 49ers will have a say in that.



The Los Angeles Chargers will make the playoffs and win at least one playoff game.



Jameis Winston will show the Cleveland Browns why two other NFL teams have given up on him, and the Browns will become the third.



Philadelphia Eagles (-3 ½) vs. Washington Commanders: The Eagles are hot, and maybe I should have included them in having a say over who represents the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Tennessee Titans (+5 ½) vs Minnesota Vikings: A lot of points to give a home team with a good defense,

Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills (-2) vs Kansas City Chiefs: I can’t believe I’m doing it, but, although the Chiefs have been winning, they have not been hitting on all cylinders.

Los Angeles Chargers

Last week 1-4

Season
Robert’s picks
Utah (+11 ½) at Colorado: It’s crazy to think about, but if this game had been played in the first week of the season, Utah would probably have been a double-digit favorite, instead of a two-score underdog. But is that warranted? Yes, Utah has lost five games in a row, including that heartbreaker against BYU last Saturday. (Yes, that was clearly defensive holding. The defender pulled the receiver’s jersey off his shoulder pads.) Colorado is certainly improved from last year, and Utah is struggling offensively since Cam Rising got injured again, but  Kyle Whittingham team is not going to quit, and this is the worst kind of matchup for Colorado – a physical, relentless defense.

LSU (-4) at Florida: The fact that things haven’t just imploded at Florida is a testament to Billy Napier. The Gators haven’t quit despite injuries and some tough losses. LSU is coming off two losses that turned Brian Kelly beet red, and Florida QB D.J. Lagway missed last week’s game with a hamstring injury. Even if he plays I don’t think he’s at full strength, plus he’s a freshman, and if the Tigers play as angry as their coach was last Saturday, a freshman QB isn’t going to beat them.

Penn St. (-28 ½) over Purdue: Aside from those first two games, I don’t find much appetizing about the rest of this week’s college menu. But Purdue is the worst team in the 18-team Big 10, and has already lost four conference games by more than this spread, and while Penn St. hasn’t been able to beat Ohio St. or Michigan, they have dominated the little guys in the conference.

Packers (-5) at Bears: I’ve gotten burned the last two times I laid points with the Packers, but if the Packers can’t cover this spread, there’s major problems. The Bears were never as good as their record through the first six weeks, then they allowed a Hail Mary to the Commanders and haven’t recovered. That requires leadership, and instead the Bears have an overmatched head coach and a rookie QB who appears to have lost his confidence. Where is the leadership going to come from?

Bengals (+1 ½) at Chargers: At 4-6, the Bengals are a long-shot to make the playoffs, but their chances are basically gone if they lose this game. I don’t want to be on the opposite side of Joe Burrow if the Bengals play with a season-on-the-line kind of effort.

Seahawks (+6 ½) at 49ers: I don’t like this quite as much as I liked the Bucs getting 6 ½ at home last week, but this version of the 49ers isn’t dominating anyone. The Seahawks are coming off a bye following an overtime loss to the Rams. That should ensure a focused effort here, which is enough to turn this game into a battle.

Last week

College 2-2

NFL 3-0

Season

College 21-23

NFL 19-9-1