By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
As a Detroit Lions fan, I like Dan Campbell a lot. And I am not alone in feeling this way.
To understand why, let’s go back to Jan. 20, 2021, the day that the Detroit Lions hired Campbell as their new head football coach. The Lions had just finished the 2020 season in which they won 5 of 16 games. They had the worst defense in the National Football League. It wasn’t just that they lost, it was the ways they managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. They were viewed by many as being soft. Their home field, Ford Field, was either half empty or, worse yet, filled with opposing fans for home games. Other teams were bold, inventive, decisive. The Lions were tentative, unimaginative, and boring to watch. Even long-term fans like me chose to watch the Thanksgiving Day Parade instead of the Lions annual Thanksgiving Day “classic”.
If they were to remain relevant competitively, the Lions had to do something. They needed a leader, someone who could, “Bring back the roar!”. When they introduced Dan Campbell to the press, the “Fourth Estate” wasted little time finding ways to make fun of him. When the Lions started 2021 0-8, the criticism grew louder. Campbell is a Neanderthal, he’s not smart enough to be an NFL coach, here we go again.
More about all that later. But, the critics were wrong. Still, there are some naysayers.
Detroit Lions’ Head Coach Dan Campbell has been called a gambler because it seems that Campbell has never met a 4th down situation that he doesn’t want to go for. Remember the old Maytag commercial where the Maytag repair man never had anything to do because those washing machines were so dependable? (If you do, be careful. You are dating yourself) That is the Lions’ punter. Just like Maytag washing machines don’t break down, Dan Campbell will not punt. And considering what the Lions were when Campbell arrived and comparing that to now, I would say to Dan Campbell, “Don’t change a thing”. And it seems that the Lions’ players feel the same way. Certainly the Lions’ fans feel that way. I have not seen so much support or love for any Detroit coach or manager that Dan Campbell enjoys from the people in the Detroit area.
Watching tv and reading NFL “experts” today, there is almost universal criticism that Campbell’s gambling went too far Sunday night in the Lions’ loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Including a fake punt, five times (??!!) the Detroit Lions “went for it” on 4th down Sunday night and they went 0 for 5. One time they eschewed a pretty certain 3 points, 3 times they were too far for a realistic field goal attempt, and then there was the aforementioned fake punt. Instead of gambling, that’s more like trying to win on video poker machines since the Pandemic. The Lions ended up losing by the score of 16-9. Had the Lions attempted, and made, the field goal they didn’t want, they probably (a word you should never use when describing a sporting event) would have lost 16-12.
I grew up in a different NFL era. I remember asking my dad why, if field goals are so bad, do NFL teams give up 25% of their precious downs to kick a field goal they don’t want. If a team averages almost 4 yards on every running play, why not run on 4th and 1? It’s easy to see that if you make it only half the time, you would still come out on top. My dad said points are hard to get in the NFL and that sure points are better than no points, you don’t want to give the other team great field position, etc. I did not want to risk further dissent as a child’s dissent in those days frequently resulted in a backyard banishment that I did not want. But still…
“Experts” who criticize Campbell’s “go for it” mentality do not understand Detroit. I haven’t had to go into it much since Campbell’s hiring in 2021, but the Detroit Lions have been horrible since their last championship in 1957 (??!!). All I will say in that regard is that the Lions are the only NFL team that existed in 1970 (NFL-AFL Merger) that has NEVER BEEN TO A SUPER BOWL. Coaches came to Detroit to stink. Good players left Detroit to star elsewhere and good players elsewhere, like their coaches, came to Detroit to stink. The city deteriorated, the politicians stole money from a shrinking tax base, and everyone who could moved to the suburbs or, like me, out of the area. With the exception of the hockey team, since 1957 Detroit professional teams have won occasional championships but usually were non-contenders. Our coaches never thought outside of the box, we had no cool plays that national tv shows replayed, and Detroit stars like Kirk Gibson and Jack Morris gained most of their fame after leaving. Even Gordie Howe left town.
Then the Lions got a real GM who hired a real coach-Dan Campbell. Campbell put together a great staff and soon, good players wanted to play in Detroit. You can put in cool plays if you have good players who can execute them. Campbell seemed to be the face of the new Lions’ movement. Optimism replaced pessimism. Ford Field was alive and the fans were all in.
Although I think all fans are fickle, it’ll take a lot more than Sunday night for Detroit fans to turn on Dan Campbell. For him, coaching the Detroit Lions is not a gamble-he’s already won.
That being said, there was poor coaching on the part of the Detroit Lions Sunday night, but it wasn’t because of gambling.
If there is only one certainty in coaching it’s that tigers don’t change their stripes, leopards don’t change their spots, you can’t teach an old dog new tricks…
If you expect a guy who never hit 10 home runs in a year to suddenly hit 30, if you expect a figure skater to be a hockey player, or if you expect a 150 pound guy to be a power running back, you will be sorely disappointed and probably lose your job if you’re the GM. Well, if you expected Jared Goff to have success against the Eagles’ defense Sunday you have to be sorely disappointed today. Disappointed-yes, but if you were surprised…
Goff was once the quarterback for the LA Rams and they had a dynamic offense. Until the New England Patriots showed that if you move Goff off his spot especially in cold weather the accurate Goff morphs into the inaccurate Jared Goff. Easy throws become impossible for him. Perfect spirals turn into ducks. Quick throws turn into scrambles where Goff seems to have two left feet. Jared Goff, pure and simple, does not handle a strong pass rush very well.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a great defensive front seven and can pressure any QB. The Rams won a Super Bowl by replacing Goff, who does not handle pressure well, with Matthew Stafford who handles pressure as well as any quarterback I have seen play. I was very much against trading for Jared Goff because I saw a lot of the pressured Goff, and I had already seen a lot of that from Detroit QBs.
But the Lions devised a system that fit Jared Goff. Lots of runs, a strong offensive line, and a quick passing game fit Jared Goff’s skill set perfectly. Sunday, Jahmyr Gibbs had a lot of early success outside but it seemed the Lions were intent on making their QB execute plays he is not suited to successfully execute. It’s easy to criticize from my LazyBoy and the Eagles have a great defense, but I count 3 times now this has happened this year.
Look for the Dan Campbell that I think I know to make the necessary changes. Turning a losing team around is harder than keeping a winning team winning. Three times this year the Lions have lost and after the first two losses they came back the next week with a strong performance. Look for that to happen again.
Another good week last week, 5-2 if you count the Patriots as only giving 11 ½ , where the line was when I wrote my column (it moved to Pats -13 ½, a loss). I have to be like Campbell and keep the train moving in the right direction, so here are my picks against the spread for this week. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Nov. 18.
Houston Texans (+6) vs Buffalo Bills: The line on this game opened Bills -3 1/2 , and had moved to Bills -6. That’s a big movement for a team that cannot stop the run.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3 ½) vs Indianapolis Colts: I’m not ready to dismiss the Chiefs yet and Daniel Jones seems like a more athletic version of Jared Goff.
Detroit Lions (-11 ½) vs NY Giants: My logic above applies here. The Lions will approach this game thinking of helping Goff, and they will rebound.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2 ½) at Arizona Cardinals: 57 pass attempts by the Cardinals??!!
Cleveland Browns (+3 ½) at LV Raiders: After watching the Raiders Monday night, I can’t see how the Raiders can be favored against any NFL team, even one with a terrible offense. Final Score: Raiders 3 Browns 0.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3 ½) at Dallas Cowboys: The only NFL team that can beat the Eagles is the Eagles.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7) at LA Rams: The Rams are the second best team in the NFC, but I’ll take the Bucs +7 against anybody.
Carolina Panthers (+7) at SF 49ers: A lot of points…
Last week 5-2
Season 43-27
Robert’s picks
Pittsburgh (+2 ½) at Georgia Tech: If you read between the lines of Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi’s comments about last week’s Notre Dame, it kind of sounds like he was punting that game while focusing on this one because of the conference championship implications. Georgia Tech just needs to win to guarantee a conference championship berth. But Pitt can also earn one with a win here, and Georgia Tech is new to this level of expectations. I won’t be surprised if they can’t handle it, while Pitt can play the carefree underdog.
UTSA (+2 ½) over East Carolina: As an ECU fan, this pick is kind of a bummer for me, but the Pirates just celebrated a last-minute win over Memphis on Senior Night last week. Now they have to travel two-thirds of the way across the country when they’re probably not at their emotional peak to face an offense that scores 32.3 points per game and needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Going with my head, not my heart on this one. I might even back this up with a little bite of the over 62, because the UTSA defense gives back almost all of what its offense gets.
San Jose St. (+11 ½) over San Diego St.: Yep, I’m betting on the team that lost 55-10 last week to Nevada. I think they’ll play with some pride this week, and if so, their passing attack can keep them within this number against a very pedestrian offense on the other side. I got to listen to the entire San Diego St.-Boise St. game on the radio last Saturday night while driving home from Mesquite, enjoying it every mile of the way. Their close-to-the-vest style won it last week, but it will keep them from pulling away this week.
Lions (-10 ½) over Giants: I don’t normally lay this many points in an NFL game. But the Lions are the NFL team that should have the biggest sense of urgency this week. Their loss last week dropped them out of wild card position, but they’re only half a game out of the wild card and one game out of the division. I’m not worried about a look-ahead to the Thanksgiving matchup with the Packers, because they know a win here is what raises the stakes for that one.
Cardinals (+2 ½) over Jaguars: I failed to account for the Jaguars’ sense of urgency last week in picking the Chargers against them. But do they have the same sense of urgency after winning that one? Human nature says no.
Eagles (-3) at Cowboys: I expected the Eagles to come out of their bye and reel off several wins in a row. They haven’t been pretty, but they’ve gotten the first two, and I ain’t jumping off the wagon yet.
Last week
College 2-1
NFL 1-2
Season
College 17-18-1
NFL 16-18
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