Super Bowl picks: Commercials

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter



In short, I will become a modern day Super Bowl watcher. 



Wikipedia says commercials are a span of television programming produced and paid for by an organization that conveys a message promoting, and aiming to market, a product, service, or idea. And, statista.com says that the cost of conveying that product, service, or idea during the “Big Game” this Sunday will average $8 million for just 30 seconds!



This year promises to have more. The one I’m looking forward to (kinda) the most is a reenactment by Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan of their famous, “I’ll have what she’s having” scene from “When Harry Met Sally” for Hellmann’s mayonnaise. AP is reporting that other commercials include Haagen Dahs sponsoring its first ever Super Bowl ad that includes several “Fast and Furious” stars, Chris Pratt and Chris Hemsworth in a Meta commercial, pickleball hustlers Catherine H’Hara and William Dafoe winning Michelob Ultras, David Beckham learning Matt Damon is his twin and they both love Stella Artois, Matthew McConaughey continuing with his “football is a food conspiracy” pitch, sloths moving slowly because it’s the day after the Super Bowl, flying facial hair in both Pringle’s and Little Caesar’s ads, a dancing tongue because Nestle Coffee Mate tastes so good, a young girl feeling better about her lower body because of Dove soap, and many others.



And so, this Sunday, the commercial better be pretty good because I do plan on imbibing my favorite beer during the game, and a catheter is not yet necessary. Although I have made a sorta uneasy truce (for now) with people who watch the Super Bowl only for the commercials, I have yet to see anyone wait for the game to start to go to the restroom. I’ll be in my appropriately named La-Z-Boy chair, with chips, dip, chicken wings, and shrimp as I watch this year’s version of the NFL championship game. Now that I know several of the commercials that are coming, maybe I’ll enjoy them this year. We’ll see.



The over/under and the winning side are tough predictions for me, so I will almost certainly focus more on prop bets this year than picking a side. It seems to me that KC cannot let Saquon Barkley beat them, and they will devote a lot of their pass defense on AJ Brown. So, I like prop bets that say Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith will have good games. Both the Eagles and Chiefs are forcing a lot of fumbles, and both teams have field goal kickers who are very good from long distance. For the Chiefs to win, they will have to have a really good game from at least one of their receivers. Which one that will be is a tougher guess. The Eagles can win without a great game from their QB, the Chiefs can’t. 



When I’m in this position and I know I’m going to bet, I like betting on the better defense. The Chiefs have been very lucky this year on many different occasions, and they have seemed to have God (as well as the referees) on their side as well. My experience has shown that God cheers for the better team. I think (but leave my house out of it) the three-peat bid ends Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles
Robert’s picks
Stop me if you’ve heard a similar story, but the last time the Eagles and Chiefs met in the Super Bowl, just two years ago, the Chiefs rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and kicked the game-winning field goal shortly after a defensive holding penalty gave them a first down and allowed them to run the clock down.

Never mind that it was actually a good call, even according to James Bradberry, the player who was called for holding.

Whether it’s a lucky bounce, a friendly flag, or as happened earlier this season, a fortuitous doink, the Chiefs continually find ways to win close games. Given that I think this game will be close, there’s no way I can bet this game other than to take the Chiefs -1.

That 2003 Super Bowl ended up 38-35, but I foresee a much different flow to this one. The Chiefs are more methodical offensively than they have been at any point in their recent run of domination, and the Eagles have allowed just 16.4 points per game since the beginning of October. Outside of the Week 18 game when the Chiefs sat most of their starters, they’ve allowed 18.4 points per game this season.

I’ve already missed the best number, but I’ll bet pizza money on the under 48 ½.

I had DeVonta Smith over 4.5 catches and over 48.5 yards in the NFC Championship game against Washington, and he ended up with 4 for 42. Instead, Jalen Hurts has been looking to Dallas Goedert when he has to get rid of the ball quickly, and he had 7 catches for 85 yards against the Commanders. Given that the Chiefs blitz at the fourth highest rate in the NFL, Hurts will be looking to get the ball out quickly.

I’m going to come back with Smith over 4.5 catches at -105 and over 49.5 yards at -110 and Goedert over 4.5 catches (-120) and over 51.5 yards (-110). I’m also going to take Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown (-115), because if the Eagles get to the 1-yard line, you know the Eagles will use the Brotherly Shove, and he’s a threat to scramble for a touchdown at any time, especially in the red zone.

For the Chiefs, I’m going to take a shot with Kareem Hunt over 1.5 receptions (+155).  Hunt has 23 receptions in 13 games this season, and in his first two seasons in KC he caught 79 passes in 27 games. Aside from winning all the time, the Chiefs have come to resemble the late-era Belichick Patriots in that their individual performances, other than from the quarterback and tight end, are unpredictable. The lines for Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy are about what I expect, but behind them, one of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray, or DeAndre Hopkins is going to have a big play and go way over meager totals, but I have no idea which one it will be.