Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter
But many of them do.
Three NFL Drafts after the 2021 Draft, of all the QBs mentioned above only Trevor Lawrence has any kind of consistent NFL success, although if you watched him last Sunday you might doubt how successful Lawrence has been at the professional level.
On Monday, the Carolina Panthers announced that after one season and two games, they were benching Bryce Young, replacing him with none other than the legendary Andy Dalton. Although Caleb Williams has only played two NFL games, I don’t think it’s too early to say he has to get better. Maybe he will, but the road to Canton is littered with the wreckage of many potential hall of famers’ wrecked careers.
Still, while doing the research for the biggest expected heroes that turned out to be flops, most of the players who failed miserably were quarterbacks. Adjusting to major league schedules and breaking balls or the physicality of the NBA and NHL is not easy, and injuries are often a factor in all sports, but the fact remains that there are by far more busts by potential NFL quarterbacks than any other position or any other sport. I couldn’t help but wonder, and therefore search for answers, as to why this seems to be so.
I’m not sure we even know what it takes to be a great professional quarterback. Because of that, many teams don’t know what to look for so we end up judging potential signal callers using metrics that are not needed to play football. I am impressed with anyone who can throw a football 80 yards on one knee, but I have never seen that particular skill displayed in a football game. Speed is always good, but Tom Brady ran like the referees. Jumping high and far are certainly signs of athleticism but most times when you see an NFL quarterback jumping it’s a bad sign for his team. Size is also good, but there have been many good shorter signal callers like Doug Flutie, Drew Brees, Kyler Murray and Fran Tarkenton. If we don’t know exactly what it takes to be a good NFL QB, how can we possibly make predictions of how good a quarterback will be?
If a losing team, like the Chicago Bears or the Carolina Panthers, drafts a big name prospect for their QB of the future, there is pressure on the coach to play that player, even if he is not ready and has no good players to help him out. Not playing much in the preseason and the ban on contact during most practices during the season do not help a young field general get experience. And, the lack of experience leads to lack of production that frequently leads to problems with a player’s confidence.
Pro defenses are generally much more complicated than college, and professional defenses are much better at disguising what they are going to do. Young NFL quarterbacks frequently choose the worst possible option because they do not understand what the defense is doing.
Watching Bryce Young play in the NFL has been sad for me. He clearly does not have the support of playing with good players. He has not been coached on how to react when things break down, or he can’t. On top of that, I think his confidence is shot. He looks to me like a short guy in an offense that needs a taller one that has caught the Russell Wilson disease of not making quick decisions. Right now, the bench and some better coaching are what he needs, but I don’t know if they will be enough.
So, what skills are necessary to become a good NFL quarterback? Besides obviously needing athletic skills like throwing and quick feet, it seems to me that the most important skill is how fast a QB can recognize what the best course of action is, and then how fast and well he can execute. Rather than having potential QBs throw from one knee or see how high they can jump, I would think about presenting a series of choices and how long it takes to recognize the best course of action. Put him into unexpected situations and see how he reacts. And of course, watch him in real games which would mean actually playing him in preseason games.
Another bad week in Week 2. My record after 2 weeks is a miserable 5-10. If you are still reading this to use my picks to bet on in Week 3, after you get back from your psychiatric appointment you should at least consider other ways to spend your money.
espn.com/nfl/odds
Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Pittsburgh Steelers Pay attention to Justin Herbert’s game status, but if he plays I think the Chargers will mitigate the Steelers’ pass rush by running the ball down the Steelers’ throats.
New Orleans Saints
Tennessee Titans (-2 ½) vs Green Bay Packers The Titans could (should) be 2-0. If they can get out of their own way, the Titans should beat the Loveless Packers at home.
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons (+5) vs Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs somehow keep winning. Before, we didn’t know whom Mahomes would throw to. Now, we don’t know who’s going to run the ball, either. If Kirk Cousins plays like he did Week 1 vs. the Steelers, maybe the Chiefs should just only take a knee on every offensive play and win it on defense. The Falcons should get a big boost from Monday Night’s game.
Last week 2-5
Season 5-10
Robert’s picks
When I saw the email with Jim's title of "Cant miss, but did" on Wednesday, I thought he was writing about my picks from last week. It’s been a long time since I had an 0-5 week in college football, but that was just the picks in this column. I actually went 0-8 on actual bets, and I know for sure I’ve never done that. But like I always say, if you’re gonna lose, do it right.
At least I did win 2 of 3 in the NFL, including a “cigar” game with the Bills over the Dolphins last week. A “cigar” game is one where you can light the proverbial victory cigar long before the game is even over.
Hopefully there’s a few more cigars and a few less 0-fers the rest of the way.
West Virginia (-2) over Kansas: I had West Virginia -2 at Pittsburgh last week and they led 34-24 with a little more than 5 minutes left, then gave up a 75-yard drive and a 77-yard drive to blow the game. But until those two drives, Pitt barely had 230 yards of offense and was completely ineffective running the ball. But now the Mountaineers are back home, looking to make amends, and the Kansas offense has been sluggish in its two games against BCS foes.
Oregon St. (-4) over Purdue: Both of these teams are coming off blowout losses to teams that were looking to make a statement. In Purdue’s case, it was Notre Dame trying to bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois, and the Irish ran all over the Boilermakers, with 362 yards rushing. Oregon St. hung tough with Oregon for the first half, but after close calls the previous two weeks, Oregon was looking to play the bully, and they did. But Oregon St is a team that expects to expects to win 7-8 games this season or more, and Purdue is expected to be one of the worst in the 18-team Big 10. Beavers bounce back.
Arkansas (+2 ½) over Auburn: Two middle of the pack at best SEC teams square off here. Arkansas would have beaten Oklahoma St. two weeks ago if not for a personal foul penalty in overtime. They’re more battle tested and won’t be intimidated by the Auburn crowd. Auburn benched QB Payton Thorne last week and got a good game from redshirt freshman Hank Brown, but that was against New Mexico, and Arkansas ain’t New Mexico.
Colts (-1 ½) over Bears: The Bears have one offensive touchdown through two weeks, and they’d be 0-2 if Titans QB Will Levis hadn’t gifted them the game two weeks ago. The Bears OL can’t protect Caleb Williams or open holes for the running game. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is getting ripped for his inaccuracy and inefficiency, but he's never going to be that and that's not his game. Richardson is to be boom or bust, and this situation screams boom for the Colts. Sitting at 0-2 and playing at home, this is a spot for a kamikaze effort. Against this opponent that should spell victory.
Eagles (+2 ½) at Saints: Here's a fun one to think about – if you threw out your preseason assumptions and expectations and just grade teams solely on their first two games, which team can you honestly say has been the most impressive? For me it would be either the Saints or the Buccs. The Saints have scored 91 points in two games. So now bring your expectations back into play, and remember this is a team that most people would have said will be lucky to win 8 games. If this game was last week, the Eagles would have been a road favorite. As we saw with the Packers last week, adjusting lines this much based off of one game is too much.
Dolphins (+4 ½) at Seahawks: The Dolphins are without Tua Tagovailoa, and although Skylar Thompson is a journeyman level backup, he still has all the weapons at his disposal that Tua had, and he has a coach in Mike McDaniel that will figure out how to work around his limitations. Seattle has the look of a team that’s going to have to scrap for everything it gets, and nothing is going to come easy.
Last week
College 0-5
NFL 2-1
Season
College 5-9
NFL 4-2
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