By Robert Perea and Tony Erquiaga
Robert
Maryland’s loss to Rutgers last week was a bummer for me, not just because I lost my pick and my bet on the Terrapins, but because it sealed the firing of head coach Mike Locksley. I was sad about that, not because I have any particular fondness for Locksley, but because I’m pretty sure my record betting on games his teams are involved in is the best of any college coach.
Except for last week, when I expected his team to beat Rutgers, his teams have generally followed the pattern of beating teams that can’t beat them up physically, and losing to teams that can.
Rutgers didn’t look like the kind of team that could beat Maryland that way, and sure enough, they didn’t. Maybe that was the reason Maryland decided to let Locksley go now, instead of after getting embarrassed two weeks in a row by UCLA and Nebraska.
While I mourn the drying up of a well I’ve successfully dipped my bucket into time and time again over the eight years Locksley has been the head coach in College Park and try to find another one, here’s this week’s effort to get back on track after a bad week of picks last week.
South Carolina (-2 ½) over Tennessee: A tip of the cap to the Volunteers for beating Alabama last week, but the SEC road is not kind, especially to teams that are celebrating big wins. Whether Tennessee puts Faizon Brandon back in to start at quarterback, or goes with George MacIntyre, the Gamecocks have the edge with LaNorris Sellers and the offensive numbers for both teams back that up.
Virginia Tech (+2 ½) at Clemson: The difference in this game should be at quarterback. Clemon’s Tait Reynolds has 1 touchdown pass and 3 interceptions and has been sacked 16 times. Ethan Grunkemeyer has 15 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions and has run for 5 touchdowns for the Hokies. What Clemson does best is hand the ball to Gideon Davis, but Virginia Tech only allows 86.5 yards rushing per game. If Reynolds is capable of carrying his team to a win, he hasn’t shown it yet.
Houston (6 ½) at Utah: Utah is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread, but Houston will be the best team the Utes have played. These two teams have very close statistical profiles and do many of the same things well. It’s one of the games I’m most excited about watching this weekend and I think it will come down to the wire.
Buccs (+3) at Panthers: At 1-5 and with Carolina leading the division at 3-2, this is a key game for the Buccs’ playoff chances, and I believe that’s why they held Baker Mayfield out last week. Blowing a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to lose in overtime to the Steelers last week was damaging to their chances, but should ensure maximum focus this week. These NFC South games tend to be close and come down to the wire.
Lions (-3) over Packers: After putting their best game of the season together two weeks ago, the Lions probably would have preferred to play last week instead of having a bye. I still think they will carry the momentum into this one. The Packers come in with three consecutive wins and haven't been able to string good performances together very often the past couple of years, so they may be ripe for the taking this week.
Rams (-4) over Raiders: After winning their first three straight, the Raiders have lost the last three, even though they gave the Bills all they could handle last week. Meanwhile, the Rams have lost two straight and haven’t looked very good doing it. But I feel about the Rams the same way I did about the Lions two weeks ago, when they went on the road and dominated the Cardinals. The best time to bet on good teams is when the situation calls for their best effort, and that certainly applies here.
Chiefs (+3) at Seahawks: A headline I saw somewhere earlier this week said, “What’s wrong with Sam Darnold?” The biggest thing is he can’t hand off to Kenneth Walker anymore. But guess what? Patrick Mahomes can, and that’s just what he needed coming back from his knee injury. Walker leads the NFL in rushing yards. I considered him the most important player for the Seahawks last year, and now he is that for the Chiefs.
Last Week
College: 0-3
NFL: 2-1
Season
College: 13-11
NFL: 12-6
Tony
A big thank you to Ohio State for not making me look like a complete frickin’ idiot. I needed one where I won by half a point. On the other hand, WTF Fresno State. WTF Houston almost did for me.
Michigan State at UCLA (-14): It has been a very long time since the team that plays in the Rose Bowl has been the best team in Los Angeles. The Bruins are starting a new QB after losing Nico Iamaleava to injury. The long trip does no favors to the Spartans. UCLA 34, Michigan State 10
Vanderbilt at Kentucky (-11): Kentucky, a football school. It sure looks like it. What kind of alternate universe are we in? Vandy is nowhere near what it was last year. Kentucky 41, Vanderbilt 17
USC at Wisconsin (+3): Just because I can’t stand USC and Lincoln Riley. Wisconsin is better than most think. The Trojans will have trouble going on the road. Wisconsin 27, USC 21
Colts at Vikings (-6.5): This should be an easy win for Minnesota, right? The Colts just fired their GM and the coach could be next. The owner is on the sideline, taking notes on who’s naughty or nice. The Vikings are one of the three undefeated teams left. Hopefully, Minnesota doesn’t turn into Minnesota. Vikings 30, Colts 13
Rams at Raiders (+4.5): The Rams were supposed to go undefeated; They were the best team ever. How has that gone for them? Sean McVay is waiting for the season to end to get into the Monday Night Football booth. Meanwhile inside the Death star, is it time to bring in Mendoza to play QB for the Raiders. A 3-0 start has quickly turned bad. Rams win but not by the spread. Rams 24, Raiders 23
Packers (+3) at Lions: You can flip a coin on this one. What Green Bay team shows up? What Detroit team shows up? The Packers are playing just a bit better now and get Josh Jacobs back and that should help. If the real Lions show up it could be bad. I am hoping that doesn’t happen. Packers 27, Lions 24
Last week
College: 1-2
NFL: 1-2
Season
College: 8-16
NFL: 7-9-1
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