By Robert Perea and Tony Erquiaga
Hoping to make sure I wasn’t missing anything important happening in the world of football, I typed an inquiry on Google asking for football new updates. The top item was that France soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé was being presented this week with his Golden Boot trophy for being to top scorer in the World Cup this summer.
That’s not at all what I was looking for, but it was a reminder that as seriously as we in the U.S. might take college and NFL football, we’re actually in the minority around the world.
But around here, “football” means point spreads and touchdowns, so let’s dive in and see if we can find a few winners for this week.
Robert
Pittsburgh (+3) at Virginia Tech (Friday): I expected when I first looked at this game that Virginia Tech must have played a tougher schedule, because although both teams are 4-0, Pittsburgh has much better yards-per-play numbers on both offense and defense than VA Tech. But each has played one FCS team, and you would be hard-pressed to figure who among Old Dominion, Maryland and Boston College is the best of VA Tech’s opponents. Pitt has faced Syracuse, Central Florida and Miami (OH), so UCF is by a significant margin the best team either of these two have faced. Given that, I’ll take 3 points with the team that has performed better so far on both sides of the ball.
Louisville (-3 ½) at NC State: Louisville fell flat on its face last week at home against Wake Forest, but I like well-coached teams coming off disappointing performances. A second conference loss this early would pretty much end Louisville’s chances to make the ACC championship game, but a win would keep them right in the hunt, especially considering that two of Clemson, Miami, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are guaranteed to lose this week, since they play each other. Facing NC State’s volatility is the perfect recipe for a team looking for redemption.
Baylor (+4 ½) over Arizona St.: Injured Baylor quarterback D.J. Lagway returned last week from a sprained ankle he suffered the first week, but Nate Bennett played well in the two games Lagway missed. Baylor lost to ASU on a field goal with no time remaining last season, so you know they’ll play with a purpose, and their defensive front has been dominant. Arizona St. is off a bye after holding off Kansas two weeks ago in a game they got outgained by 200 yards but won because of three Kansas turnovers. ASU quarterback Cutter Boley threw 12 interceptions last year for Kentucky and Baylor’s pass rush should force him to make a few errant throws.
Giants (+2 ½) over Cardinals: Speaking of interceptions, Jameis Winston is starting for the Giants since Jaxson Dart got hurt, but Dart hadn’t proved himself as an NFL quarterback, and yet the Giants’ power rating has been downgraded as if they had lost a top signal-caller. Winston is equally capable of great and horrible performances, but his worst performances have usually come on the heels of his best ones. In this situation, the Giants are a home underdog in a game they should be favored in, so I’ll take the points.
Broncos (+2 ½) at 49ers: If the Broncos play as poorly as they did in the first half the last three weeks, the 49ers offense will probably make them pay. But the 49ers have already lost seven of the 10 defensive linemen they started the season and are so desperate for receiver help that they signed Dante Pettis, a guy they gave up on a few years ago. I think they suffer their first loss this week,
Chiefs (-4 ½) at Raiders: The Raiders are definitely vastly improved, but I don’t believe they are a true contender, so what their 3-0 record actually does is guarantee the Chiefs take this game seriously. Saints mistakes helped the Raiders survive last week, but Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to give the ball away like Tyler Shough did last week.
Last week
College: 2-1
NFL: 2-1
Season
College: 9-6
NFL: 6-3
Tony
I actually didn’t embarrass myself last week and might be getting better at this. I think. Let’s see if I can do better this week.
Florida (-5.5) at Missouri: Count me in. I am aboard the Florida bandwagon. Probably a week late, and then they will probably look bad as I jumped on. The Gators are 4-0 for the first time since 2019 and are probably glad Lane Kiffin didn’t come to town. Florida ranks first in the country in adjusted offensive EPA per play. However, its defense ranks 122nd in EPA per rush allowed. Florida 38, Missouri 27
Miami Fla. (-16.5) at Clemson: This is probably the last ride for Dabo Swinney at Clemson. The game has passed Dabo by. He’s a great coach but is old-school. Miami’s Malachi Toney might be the best player in college football as a receiver. He averages 141 receiving yards a game. Miami 41, Clemson 13
Texas Tech at Colorado (+14.5): I am not the biggest Deion Sanders fan as a coach. He was supposed to lead Colorado to the promised land. Instead, it has been a disaster. Colorado's defense has allowed an average of 355 yards of offense to its first four opponents, with Northwestern earning the most at 423. Through Tech's first four games, its offense has averaged 429.5 yards per game, even if it has struggled to gain momentum through various parts of each game. Colorado keeps it somewhat close at home. Texas Tech 34, Colorado 24.
Buccs at Packers (-3.5): Will the real Packers team please stand up. Green Bay has been a huge disappointment through three weeks. Are they falling out of Love? The defense is horrible. Tampa Bay is starting undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Packers 27, Bucs 13
Cowboys (+2.5) at Texans: Dallas can’t screw this one up, can they? Maybe hire a new special teams coordinator for kicking the ball in the end zone; and what kind of defense are they playing? The Texans should be better but aren’t. Cowboys 20, Texans 14
Patriots at Bills (-6.5): Is the party in New England over? After getting routed in the Super Bowl and an interesting offseason, the Patriots are in a funk. Drake Maye needs to show up. Not this week. Bills 30, Patriots 17
Last week
College: 2-1
NFL: 1-1-1
Season
College: 5-10
NFL: 3-5-1
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