By Robert Perea and Tony Erquiaga
Robert
Welcome to this week’s picks column, where unlike about four NFL teams this week, we aren’t having to call for a backup quarterback, even though Tony might wish for one after the football gods smacked him around a bit last week.
I meanwhile, came away feeling pretty lucky about a couple of my wins, so I’m definitely not getting too comfortable. I’m glad to be on the plus side of the ledger, and hoping to find a way to stay there.
Texas (-4) at Tennessee: This line has come down a point-and-a-half, apparently because Texas running back Hollywood Smothers is questionable. Smothers is pretty good and he was underutilized at NC State, but I’m betting on Texas here because of its defense against Tennessee freshman QB Faizon Brandon. I think Brandon is going to be a stud and he’s played well so far, but against Furman, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State. This will be the first time the outcome going to be on his shoulders, and he will suffer some growing pains here.
Iowa (+5 ½) at Michigan: I’m not convinced that Michigan is the better team here. The Wolverines are undoubtedly great defensively, but New Mexico only allowed 10 more yards against Oklahoma than Michigan did, and the Wolverines other two games were against Western Michigan and UTEP. Iowa’s defense is probably as good, and the offense has been better.
Oregon (-3) at USC: I’ve been a fan of USC defensive coordinator Gary Patterson since he was the defensive coordinator at New Mexico in 1996-97, but I’m convinced USC’s defensive problems the past few years are more the result of the way Lincoln Riley calls offense than bad defensive coaching. Oregon’s road loss at Oklahoma St. gives me a little pause, but only a little, and I’ll take the Ducks to win this game between traditional Big 10 rivals (LOL).
Colts (+2 ½) over Texans: Maybe the Colts’ defense, allowing 515 yards and 37 points per game in the first two weeks is broken. Or maybe they just had the misfortune of playing Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Either way, they’re 0-2, desperate for a win and getting points at home against the Texans, who are also 0-2. I also think the total on this game is too low and part of what I wager on this game will be on the over 42 ½.
Jaguars (-2 ½) over Patriots: Even though I won on the Patriots last week without having to sweat much, Drake May still struggled, and if that’s going to be the case again, the Jags are the side for me. The Jags didn’t do much against Denver either, with 26 percent of their total yards for the game coming on one drive. But back home, off a loss, and in the Florida humidity, I think they keep the Patriots offense in check.
Buccs (+1 ½) over Vikings: The Buccs are 0-2, the Vikings defense (with some help from the rain) held the Bears to 3 points a week after scoring 59, and even former Tampa Bay running back Leonard Fournette said on a podcast this week that maybe it’s time for Buccs’ coach Todd Bowles to “wrap it up.” But the nature of the NFL is the opposite of physics, and objects in motion tend to reverse, rather than remain in motion. The rest of the betting world seems to expect the Buccs to zig, but I’m betting this week is the zag.
Last week
College: 3-0
NFL: 3-0
Season
College: 7-5
NFL: 4-2
Tony
I outdid myself last week, going a combined 0-6 with my college and NFL picks. Actually, I think that is pretty impressive if I say so myself. Same odds as winning them all, right? Let’s see if I can redeem myself.
Texas at Tennessee (+7) This is quietly a game of the week contender and is set for a noon start in Tennessee. This is a must, must win for Texas on the road. Arch Manning needs a Heisman type performance. The Longhorns’ defense is the difference. Texas wins the game but give me Tennessee and the points. Texas 24, Tennessee 20.
Texas A&M (+9) at LSU: The crazy week and game at Ole Miss is now in the rearview mirror for LSU and Lane Kiffin. But life in the SEC gets no easier, as the gauntlet of a schedule continues. Texas A&M lost at home to Kentucky. Were they overlooking the Wildcats to this one? Texas A&M needs to play better. Nine points is a big spread. LSU 38, Texas A&M 30.
Oregon (-3) at USC: The postseason is on the line for Oregon. Another loss by the Ducks would more likely end any run at the CFP. Oregon has to still be stewing over an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma State, a year after beating them 69-3. As a Notre Dame guy, I can never root for USC. Lincoln Riley is possibly one of the most overrated college coaches. Oregon 42, USC 20
Chiefs (-10-5) at Dolphins: Miami is the worst team in the NFL, right? The Dolphins are a dumpster fire and Darius Rucker is going to cry again after this one. Travis Kelce has some Taylor Swift super powers gifted to him, Patrick Mahomes is back and Kansas City has the best running back in football. Chiefs 38, Dolphins 10.
Bengals (-3.5) at Steelers: Does A Aron regret coming back for one more year? The Steelers look dysfunctional and the offensive line is a huge problem. Cincy might be the real deal and Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have a good day. Bengals 30, Steelers 17
Ravens (-3) vs. Cowboys at Rio De Janeiro: Where is the much-improved Dallas defense. They haven’t shown up yet. Maybe going to another country will help that. Just hand the ball off to Derek Henry. Ravens 24, Cowboys 20
Last week
College: 0-3
NFL: 0-3
Season
College: 3-9
NFL: 2-4
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