By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
Week #18 in the NFL. This year, Week 18 reminds me of one of my wife’s reality TV shows where a 60-year old rich woman travels to some third world country to meet her 25-year old stud boyfriend. What could possibly go wrong?
If you’re trying to bet NFL games this week, lots.
Is the team you’re betting more interested in a higher draft pick than winning the game? How many starters on each team are going to play? How could when a team plays affect potential motivation? Is earning a week off in the playoffs worth risking a key injury? Is home field worth risking injury for? Will a team play a player looking to cash in on bonus incentives? Have any teams given up?
We really don’t know the answer to any of the above questions and the only solace I can find is that, unlike this year’s college bowl games, all the NFL coaches are going to coach their teams.
The whole situation makes me wonder if and why I would ever make any NFL bets this weekend. Maybe I won’t bet at all…NAAHHHH.
Before I go any further, a couple of things. First, most NFL players are playing for their jobs not only every game, but every practice. The majority of players cannot afford to take a week off. Next, these guys are not only world-class athletes, they are world-class competitors. Most of them want to be the best in everything - golf, bowling, checkers, even Tiddlywinks, whatever that is. They don’t understand any effort less than their best. Many players are playing for significant performance bonuses. Even if you make 20 million dollars a year, a million more is a lot of money.
So, I reject the notion that this team or that team have “nothing to play for”. But I do believe that some players and teams have more to play for than others, and that MAY affect motivation. Notice I said “MAY” and one has to look no farther than Tampa Bay and Miami last week to understand what I meant.
With all that in mind, and remembering that all NFL teams are not created equal, I think there are three tiers that all NFL games this week can be placed in. Games where both teams have a lot to play for, games where one of the teams has more than the other to play for, and games where, this year, neither team has much to play for, a category that I already have cast doubt upon.
There are two games where both teams have to win to make the playoffs: The Buccaneers/Panthers; and the Ravens/Steelers. In the division no one seems to want to win, both Tampa Bay and Carolina lost last week to fall to 7-8. Carolina has lost two of its last three while Tampa has lost seven of its last eight. Both teams have combined to go 1-5 in their last three and the only win for either team in that span came when Carolina beat Tampa 2 weeks ago. If you believe in Big Mo, what do you do with that? The Ravens, leaking oil at QB and the Steelers, with chuck-and-duck Aaron Rodgers, come into their must-win game consistently inconsistent. It would seem betting on either of these two games is about as safe as betting on the efficacy of Congress.
Games in which many believe neither team has anything to play for include Browns/Bengals, Cowboys/Giants, Chiefs/Raiders, Packers/Vikings, and Saints/Falcons. Bengals coach Zac Taylor has already said QB Joe Burrow will play and Browns’ star Myles Garrett needs a sack to break the all-time sack record. Will that give the porous Cincy offensive line motivation? Cowboys’ coach Brian Schottenheimer has said his regulars will play. Both the Raiders and the Giants need to lose to secure the first overall pick in next spring’s college draft. The Chiefs have no one to catch the ball, but no one to throw it, either. The Packers are locked into the 7th NFC seed. While the Saints/Falcons game may end up being important, it’s not important this season to either of these two teams. If Tampa Bay wins on Saturday, the Bucs will need the Saints to beat the Falcons on Sunday or else the Panthers (by virtue of a tie-breaker) will advance to the playoffs. (??) A better place to put your money may be in one of those convenience store crypto machines.
The rest of the games have one team with, it would seem, more motivation than the other to win. Before you put the house on any game, remember Tampa Bay/Miami last week. And, although it would make sense for it not to be so, I will be making NFL bets this weekend. And I criticize others for being stupid.
Here are my picks for this week. Lines are from espn.com on Wednesday, Dec. 31.
Carolina Panthers (+2 ½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Miami loss told me all I need to know about the Bucs this year. The Bucs will end their fall with a thud by losing 8 of their last 9 and save the Falcons from costing the Bucs the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks (-1 ½) at SF 49ers This one should be simple for the Seahawks…Run the ball!!! San Francisco can’t stop the run, so the Seahawks should not have to depend on Sam Darnold at all. The 49ers, although still in the running for the #1 NFC seed, cannot do it without help. The Seahawks can, and will, do it on their own.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Atlanta Falcons No matter what happens in Tampa on Saturday.
Dallas Cowboys (-4 ½) at NY Giants The Giants, unlike last week, are playing a team this week that is not trying to lose.
Minnesota Vikings (+6 ½) vs Green Bay Packers Even though the Packers have not yet said it, I think it makes sense to sit everyone they can. The Vikings beat the Lions last week despite throwing for only 51 yards.
Baltimore Ravens (-3 ½) at Pittsburgh Steelers I hope Lamar Jackson doesn’t play this week, because “Snoop” Huntley looks better than Jackson to me. Mostly, I’m betting against the Steelers, and I’ll freely admit I don’t like this year’s version of the Steelers, who look nothing like the Steelers of my youth.
Last week 2-3
Season 59-52
Robert’s picks
It probably has more to do with the seeding methods than anything else, but the four quarterfinal teams last year that had a first-round bye all lost. Most of those dynamics probably aren’t in place this year. For one, Boise St, was probably the 12th best team in the playoff and was seeded third.
But I do think there is an advantage for the teams that shook off the rust last week, especially against teams that haven’t played in three and a half weeks, or for those that weren’t in conference championship games, since Thanksgiving weekend. I also think this year’s field is stronger overall than last year, and that this year’s seedings are more accurate.
That said, I do expect the games to be close and I think all four underdogs have a chance.
Miami, Fla. (+9 ½) over Ohio St.: The three best teams Ohio St. played against this season were Texas, Michigan and Indiana, and all three of those games were low-scoring. I expect this to be low-scoring and I’m always interested in taking this many points with a great defense like Miami’s. I am concerned about Carson Beck’s interceptions, but if he avoids crucial turnovers, Miami can win this game at the line of scrimmage.
Texas Tech (+2 ½) over Oregon: Texas Tech had the first-round bye while Oregon got in a workout against James Madison, while still pulling starters out early with a huge lead. Even though everyone thinks offense when they think Texas Tech, this defense has dominated, only allowing 20 points twice. Oregon is the best offense they have faced, but Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana slowed down the Ducks and Texas Tech is at least on par with those defenses.
Alabama (+7 ½) over Indiana: This game is mostly -7, but I did get a 7 ½, which are available depending what sports book you use. I also suspect the line may go that way before kickoff. Alabama’s run game hasn’t been right all season, and even the return of Jam Miller and tight end Josh Cuevas didn’t help against Oklahoma. Indiana may well just dominate the line of scrimmage and control the game, but I just can’t help but recall all the athletic mismatches I’ve seen through the years with Big 10 teams that don’t have the speed on the flanks. I know Indiana is really good, but I just can’t get past the fact that they don’t have elite individual talent, and I can’t resist taking the points with the team with better individual athletes.
Georgia (-6 ½) over Mississippi: It was a no-nonsense performance by Ole Miss over Tulane in the first round, but that was just an athletic mismatch. Now Kirby Smart and his staff get a second look this season at the Rebels, and we saw how well they dominated Alabama three weeks ago in their second look at the Tide in the SEC Championship game. I think Georgia’s ‘A’ game is better than everyone else’s. If Georgia wins this, then the semifinal matchup between Georgia and either Ohio St. or Miami is the game of the playoff.
Panthers (+2 ½) over Buccs: I’m not sure I recall a slide like the Buccs are on, 1-7 since their bye week, when they were 6-2 going in, and they were favored in five of those seven losses. The first three of those losses were against the three toughest opponents they faced, but up until a couple of weeks ago I didn’t their slide reflected who the Buccs have become. Now I’m betting they can’t just snap out of it.
Steelers (+3 ½) over Ravens: I bet a lot of games that have a high possibility of embarrassment if they lose, so sometimes I’m hesitant to write those picks here, like the Browns over the Steelers last week. This falls in the same category, but I should have written that one, so I am writing this one. The Steelers laid an egg in a game they have no business losing last week, but now they’re a home underdog. I thought they’d find a way to lose last week, but I think they’ll find a way to win this week. It doesn’t matter to me whether Lamar Jackson plays or not.
Titans (+12 ½) over Jaguars: The Jaguars need to win to clinch the AFC South, and have a chance at the No. 1 seed, if Denver loses to the Chargers without Justin Herbert, and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins. In other words, they will most likely be No. 3, as long as they win here. But we’ve seen time again in the NFL that need to win doesn’t mean you will, and it certainly doesn’t mean you will cover. In fact, teams that need to win are almost always inflated by the point spread, and quite often struggle to cover it. Meanwhile, Cam Ward is playing well and the Titans have put some points on the board in the last four weeks. I’m guessing they put up enough to make the Jaguars sweat this one out.
Last week
College No plays
NFL 1-2
Season
College 24-22-1
NFL 23-27-1
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