NFL Week 12 picks: Big Mo’

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

Watching the Los Angeles Chargers do their best to blow their three touchdown lead Sunday night, I couldn’t help but to think back and remember the biggest shift in a game’s momentum in my career as a player and coach.

It was 2003. I was the junior varsity baseball coach at Moapa Valley High School. When I say “the” coach, I mean that literally. There were no assistant coaches, no parent volunteers, not even a student manager. And we were bad, really bad. The Little League program that started in 2001 had not yet sent us players that could play baseball. So, on the JV I was spending time teaching kids to do things like tag up on fly balls, how to grip the ball to throw a curveball, how to take a lead off, even how to play catch to warm up properly. That is not to say our kids weren’t smart. They all would take two or three balls to play catch with, because that way they wouldn’t be chasing missed balls and wild throws all the time.

And there was not much mercy from anyone. We played Bishop Gorman in a doubleheader and we didn’t get a single hit in either game, and both their pitchers were quite a bit better than anyone we had on our varsity at that time. Team would catch us on hidden ball and fake wild throw pickoffs all the time, and usually the mercy rule could not come soon enough for me.

In the midst of all this we went with the varsity to play at Faith Lutheran. At that time in non-league games, the JV would play after the varsity and if there were no lights, the JV would play as many innings as possible before it got dark. Faith was then a pretty new athletic program that they were trying to build into the power that they are today, but they were still much better than we were. 

The varsity only played 4 ½ innings because they were losing by more than 10 runs, so we got to start our game with plenty of daylight left, and I thought our team would probably suffer the same fate as our varsity.

It didn’t go that way. We started a pitcher who had never pitched

before, and he pitched great.  In the top of the 7th inning, we were ahead 8-1. We had to save our pitchers because we had two more league doubleheaders that week, and with a “big” lead I wanted to get all our players into the game, even though this was before players could re-enter the game, as they can in high school now. We had an easy win.

That changed in our half of the last inning. Our pitcher tried to score on a play that was going to be close, and the umpire ruled that our pitcher intentionally ran into their catcher, and threw our pitcher out of the game. For some reason, the varsity baseball coach was suddenly on the field with me arguing the call, and he got thrown out of the game, too, even though he wasn’t even part of the game. 

We only had eight players left who could play, and I put in the only one who had pitched before and went with two outfielders.

I should have known, I should have known, I should have known. My new pitcher, incredibly, proceeded to hit 8 batters in a row! He did throw a strike, to something like the 5th of those batters, but it was only a strike because the ball would have hit the batter but as he ducked out of the way the ball hit the bat. No problem, my guy hit that guy with the next pitch. When I made the one visit I could to the mound, not one of my 8 players, including the guy who was pitching, wanted to pitch. After 8 straight batters getting hit by pitch, my guy finally threw a pitch that didn’t hit anybody and was a strike! Sadly for us, their batter somehow was ready to swing, and hit the pitch way wide of either of our two outfielders that is probably still rolling. All three base runners scored, and we lost the game, 9-8.

All told, our pitcher only threw one real strike in about 20 total pitches. We didn’t get any outs, and they only got one hit. I sat in the dugout, then stood in the dugout, then paced the dugout. I listened to the “help” from the Moapa fans. I pleaded with my pitcher, I yelled at the umpire, heck, if I had a student manager, I would have had him pitch, but nothing I did worked. We had the momentum, and then we didn’t. We had the game, and then we lost it. The other team went from silent to hopeful to fired up to yelling at me that our pitcher was actually doing it on purpose!  I would take the blame for the collapse, but after much reflection I realized I would do the exact things I did if I had it to do over.

I thought of all this while watching the Chargers go from world beaters to arm tackling, pass dropping, fumbling, wtf play calling dolts. In baseball, momentum is often described as being only as strong as the next day’s starting pitcher. In the NFL, momentum seems to be with the team that has the hot field goal kicker.

Don’t get me wrong, I am happy to take credit for rare correct predictions but if Bengals’ kicker Evan McPherson and Ravens’ kicker Justin Tucker successfully kicked even half of their field goal attempts last Sunday, I would have been a big loser instead of a winner. If Bears’ kicker Cairo Santos made his 47 yard attempt on the last play of the game Sunday, NFL Network’s Good Morning Football crew would have been praising the Bears instead of burying them. Right now, people are waiting in line to criticize Aaron Rodgers but if Greg Zuerlein, the first Jets’ kicker this year, had been near the kicker this year he was the last several years “experts” would probably be proclaiming right now that Aaron Rodgers had beaten Father Time. Don’t even bring up “wide right” to Buffalo Bills’ fans.

Despite my aversion to games being decided by field goals, even I thought that Chargers’ running back JK Dobbins should have slid down before scoring the winning touchdown Sunday night. That way, LA could have run the clock all the way down before attempting the winning field goal on the last play of the game, depriving the Bengals of the two Hail Marys they threw on the game’s final plays IF LA made the field goal.

In high school, it frequently takes something very obvious, like 8 straight batters hit by pitch, to swing momentum. But in the NFL, momentum can swing on the tiniest of factors, and often that factor is the swing of their kicker’s leg.

Week 12 has BEWARE! Written all over it to me, because there are many home dogs, some with big numbers. You can lay 11 or 7 ½ points on a bet on the visiting team, but be careful because it often will cost you money. With that warning, here are my picks for Week #12 games. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Nov. 19.

Cleveland Browns (+3 1/2() vs Pittsburgh Steelers: This prediction is based on the home team having a huge advantage on Thursday nights, the Steelrs possibly having a let down after their huge win last Sunday, and the complete “X” factor that is Jameis Winston. No matter what the record, the Browns do have a lot of good players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5 ½) at NY Giants: The Giants finally did it, they benched Daniel Jones. The problem is, now they return to Danny DeVito (sic). I know it’s really Tommy DeVito, but the problem is this DeVito is way better at marketing himself than playing quarterback.

Washington Commanders (-10 ½) vs Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys STINK. They are, by far, the worst team in the NFL, and now their “stars” (who seem better at pouting than playing) are looking at different ways to throw sideline fits.

Denver Broncos (-5 ½) at Las Vegas Raiders: A lot of what I said about the Cowboys could also be said about the Raiders, except there can only be 1 worst team.

Green Bay Packers (-2 ½) vs San Francisco 49ers: I give up on the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey doesn’t look like himself, Brock Purdy’s shoulder is hurting, Nick Bosa’s hips are hurting, Deebo Samuel looks like he got bullied as a kid instead of being the bully, I dropped their defense in our fantasy league (I’m sure that bugs them) their field goal kicker needs his snapper to defend him from his own teammates, and they need to find a league where they only play three quarters. I keep waiting for them to get better, but…

Los Angeles Chargers  (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens: The game of the week, and this is no sure thing.  Baltimore is good, but the Chargers have to beat good teams to get to where they want to go.

Last week 5-1

Season 30-36-2

Robert’s picks

Duke (+3) over Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech is probably the better team on paper, but Duke has been the better team on the field all season, and they’re at home taking a field goal. Kyron Drones is really good at for the Hokies, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. Each of their wins this season has come against a team playing its backup quarterback. That’s not the case here.

Arizona St. (-3) over BYU: BYU lost its undefeated season last week, and historically, its been difficult for teams that suffered their first loss late in the season to come back. We’ve seen that several times the last couple of weeks as previously undefeated teams promptly suffered their second loss after losing their first. I thought the new 12-team playoff might change that, because in the past losing this late in the season meant the end of a team’s dream, but BYU can still make the Big 12 championship game, and thus the playoff, with a win here. I just don’t think they’ll get it.

USC (-4 ½) over UCLA: Things started pretty bad for UNLV transfer Jordan Maiava last week, completing just two of his first seven passes, with a pick-six. But he played well the rest of the way, and now the Trojans face the 107^th ranked pass defense in the country. USC’s problems have all been on the road and although this is a road game, it’s in LA and half the Rose Bowl crowd, if not more, will be wearing Trojan red.

Kansas (+3) over Colorado: I’m nothing if not stubborn. I knew I’d lost my Utah bet last week as soon as the TV showed Isaac Wilson starting at QB, which is something that I should have known and didn’t. But even with the overmatched Wilson, Utah was only down 11 and had the ball at the Colorado 42 late in the game, taking +13 ½, before three consecutive turnovers by Wilson turned the game into a blowout. But Kansas has gotten hot after its early season struggles, can match Colorado offensively and has an excellent pass rush, which feeds right into Colorado’s weakness. I think I had the right idea last week, and I’m not giving up on it.

Texas A&M (-2 ½) at Auburn: That Texas A&M loss at South Carolina a couple weeks ago causes a little concern, but I’ve won going against Auburn four times this season, and I’m going to dip my bucket in that well one more time.

49ers (+2) at Packers: The 49ers are 5-5 despite being favored in all 10 games. How rare is that? This is the sixth time that’s happened since 1977. But they’ve won each of the previous three games I’ve considered “show your guts” situations, and I expect the same thing here. Three times in their last four games the Packers have eked out close wins in games that I thought they should have handled. Kyle Shanahan said the 49ers have to make sure they find a way to win this football game, and I think they will.

Seahawks (pk) over Cardinals: It wasn’t until Nick Bosa went out of the game last week that the Seahawks started having some success on offense. But the Cardinals have nobody like Bosa. They don’t rush the passer well and they don’t cover well. Now it looks like they will have to deal with the wind and rain in Seattle this week. On a fun note, it’s not that farfetched that the Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 49ers beat the Packers and Rams beat the Eagles. If those three things all happen, all four teams in the NFC West will be 6-5.

Colts (+7 ½) over Lions: I’ve looked up and down the board trying to find a third NFL game this week, and keep coming back to this one. Things are going too good right now for the Lions, and at some point, everyone in the NFL slips up. Before the Lions played the Seahawks on Sept. 30, I said the Lions offense hadn’t yet detonated. Since I wrote those words, the Lions are averaging 39.14 points per game. Nothing in the NFL stays that easy, and with the Lions on the road, with the next two games coming against the Bears and Packers, this looks like the letdown spot.

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College 1-2

NFL 1-2

Season

College 22-25

NFL 20-11-1