By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
When I was much younger, before we moved to Nevada, my slow-pitch softball team won the city championship. It was a big deal, and our sponsor got a trophy bigger than I am.
To win that trophy, we had to beat a really good team, and we did. What I didn’t think about at the time was the weather on the day we won. It was cold and rainy, with the wind blowing in from the outfield at around 30 MPH with higher gusts. The team we played powered blast after blast into that storm strength wind, but to no avail as the wind just held their flyballs up so that our outfielders could chase them down and catch them.
I guess that win went to our heads. The next year, we played that same team again, on a day when there were no hurricane force winds turning their long flyballs into outs, and they pounded us something like 20-5. We had to play so deep that even singles turned into doubles and triples by the time we could get the ball back into the infield, and they STILL hit several balls over our heads.
I learned that day that there is no defense against a really good softball team.
I am not a good golfer, but I do have a big mouth and I got myself into an ill-advised golf match against someone who was a really good golfer. There was no way I could not stop my opponent that day from playing better golf than I ever could.
That day I learned that you can’t play defense in golf, either.
With those two exceptions, I think defense really does win championships in team sports.
And then there’s fantasy football. Up until this year, I believed that it’s not possible to play defense in fantasy football. I can’t have Patrick Surtain lining up on defense every time my team faces Jamar Chase or Justin Jefferson. When my team faces Jonathan Taylor, I can’t import the Houston Texans’ defense to oppose him. All I can hope for when I face Brandon Aubrey is that weather conditions make field goals difficult.
But this year I realized the importance of fantasy football defense. My team this year has scored the least points of any team in our 12 team league, and has had the most points scored against. This combination of the least points for and the most points against is usually the kiss of death in fantasy football.
But not this year. Although my drafting strategy was obviously bad, my team management must have been great, right?
I guess it was ok if you don’t count me trading Chase Brown for two players that never played a single snap for me. I guess that trade proves my team management wasn’t so good, either.
So, how did my team overcome this normally deadly duo of mess-ups and make the playoffs?
Well, our league is divided into two divisions, with three teams in each division making the fantasy postseason. One division was very strong, and my team’s division was very weak. Going into the last weekend of the regular season, one team in my division was 10-3, one team was 2-11 and 4 teams, mine included, were 6-7. In the event of a tie, the first tiebreaker is points scored. I already mentioned that my team has scored the least in the league, so my only chance to win was to win and hope that two of the other three teams I was tied with lost.
I played the team that was 2-11. I guess to pout, the team I was playing did not replace any of the four players he had on bye. So, I was playing a team that was four players short. I was still worried all week because the only thing worse than beating a team four players short is losing to a team four players short. I won, but had the team I was playing replaced his players on bye with 3 of the players he already had on his bench, I would have lost.
One of the teams I was tied with was my son’s team. My son had already lost one week by a margin of 1/10 of one point. He was winning going into Monday night’s game, but you knew what was going to happen and he ended up losing. My win, combined with losses by two of the three teams I was tied with, got me into the playoffs.
The accomplishment of getting my terrible team into the playoffs proves you can play defense in fantasy football, right?
No. I got into the layoffs due to an incredible run of luck. To me, this proves that not only can you not play defense in fantasy football, you can’t play defense against bad luck, either.
What about in the NFL? Does defense still win championships in the NFL?
According to Pro Football Reference, teams are scoring an average of 23.1 points per game in the NFL this year. In spite of my perception, which is kind of like judging climate change by looking out the window, this is the highest number of points scored in the NFL since 2020, which was the highest scoring year in the NFL ever. Actually, since 1993 the average amount of points per game per team has been between 20.2 and 24.8. This despite many rule changes designed to increase offense and my perception that there are less points being scored this year.
So, if you ever thought that defense wins championships in the National Football League, the numbers say that you should still believe that. I wanted to show that defense is more dominant this year, but I learned that my perception is just not true. Like what has always been the case, defense wins championships. I guess sometimes some of us must change perceptions based upon real data.
3-3 last week. It should be 4-2, but a Denver defender decided to take a break while lying on a Raider, leading to a penalty, a stopped clock, and a field goal to get a back door cover for the hapless Raiders. Oh, well, I guess I used up all my luck in fantasy. I’ll try again now. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Dec. 9.
New England Patriots (+1 ½) vs Buffalo Bills: Eventually, someone besides Josh Allen has to step up for the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2 ½) vs Baltimore Ravens: Something is wrong with Baltimore, and this road game won’t help.
Las Vegas Raiders (+11 ½) at Philadelphia Eagles: I think the Eagles are the best team in the NFL when things are going right, and a bad NFL team when things are going like they did in 2023. I wanted to take anyone vs. the Eagles this week, and then I saw they were playing the Raiders. The Raiders stink, but the Eagles can have streaks where they can’t beat anybody.
Denver Broncos (+2 ½) vs Green Bay Packers: The Broncos are doing well, and are getting points at home.
Carolina Panthers (-2 ½) at New Orleans Saints: If you watched any of the Saints win last week, you know that they were as lucky as I was to make the playoffs to win that game. The Panthers need to win.
Dallas Cowboys (-5 ½) vs MInnesota Vikings: The Cowboys look pretty good at home to me.
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: I do not believe in the Steelers.
Last week 3-3
Season 52-38
Robert’s picks
Bills (-1) at Patriots: Even if the Bills win here the Patriots still hold the edge to win the AFC East with three games left, but the Bills have to win this to have any chance. As good as the Patriots have been this year, I don’t think they’ll cruise to the finish. The Patriots won the first meeting on a last-minute field goal, but in a late-season pressure game, I want the team with the quarterback who’s been there and done that, not the one there for the first time.
Saints (+2 ½) over Panthers: Amazingly, the Panthers are in first place in the NFC South. But, this is the NFC South, which means the teams that are supposed to win the division matchups usually don’t. Six of the Panthers’ seven wins have come as an underdog, and now they’re a road favorite. It’s far different for a team that’s had success as an underdog to do it as the favorite, especially one that isn’t used to being in that situation. Staying true to my own handicapping methods means I have to hold my nose and take the Saints.
Broncos (+2 ½) over Packers: That was a clutch drive by the Packers after the Bears tied the game at 21 last Sunday, followed up with clutch third and fourth down stops to seal the win and beat me by a half point last week. But now the Packers have to go on the road to face another tough opponent after winning three consecutive division games, and with a rematch against the Bears coming next week. They’ll have to be really good to win this week, and despite their record, they’ve only been really good in spurts this season.
Last week
College 0-2
NFL 1-2
Season
College 22-21-1
NFL 18-23-1
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