Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter
Hold on. Before crowning the Bears as champions-elect because of their new coach, fans need to remember some names like Buddy Ryan, Dom Capers, Eric Mangini, Bill Callahan, Mike Tice, JIm Caldwell, Romeo Crennel, Cam Cameron, Rod Marinelli, Kevin Gilbride. Marty Mornhinweg, Josh McDaniels, Nathaniel Hackett, Vic Fangio, Steve Spagnuolo, Frank Reich, Wade Phillips, Jim Schwartz, Matt Patricia, Norv Turner, and Hue Jackson. These are names of very successful NFL assistant coaches who were not very successful NFL head coaches.
When I was the head coach of the Moapa Valley baseball team, I was swamped. I had to deal with umpires, the NIAA, parents, interviews, the field, fund raising, equipment, making sure there were enough baseballs, apparel requests, all the other baseball coaches, the JV, clinics, Little League, scheduling, recruiting, other school activities, the School District, and coaching. And for me, way too often coaching was last. Not because I wanted it that way, but because the other things demanded my attention more urgently than actually coaching did.
Some coaches are very good at handling all the responsibilities that go along with being, “the head guy” and some, like me, are not. The NFL has some coaches who are very good at this, and some that are not. Many of the ones that are not are on my list above.
This does not mean that Ben Johnson will not be a great head coach. Although there are many assistant coaches who failed as head guys, there are many others who were very successful, most notable among them Bill Belichick. In fact, most NFL head coaches were NFL assistants first.
As the season dwindles down to fewer games, the betting lines on those games are under more scrutiny than regular season games. When you bet a game, although not as important as who you bet, becomes much more important. Take last week’s game involving the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. The betting line, according to espn.com, opened at Chiefs -7 ½. The public bet the Chiefs up to -8 when I wrote my article last week, then to -9, which is the number I bet them at. When the game started, most Las Vegas books had the line at Chiefs -9 ½. If you check last week’s scores, you see if you bet the game before it went to -9, you won. If you waited until the last minute, you lost. If you bet when I did, you tied. Although it had no bearing, the line on the Lions game opened at Lions -5 ½ and moved to Lions -10. The Baltimore Raven went from opening as 1 point underdogs to closing as 1 point favorites.
So, here are my penultimate picks against the point spread for this season. Lines are from espn.com on Tuesday, Jan 21.
Washington Commanders
Buffalo Bills (+2) at Kansas City Chiefs: I really don’t know where this line will go. espn.com says the line is Bills +2, but on ESPN the scrawl says the Bills are -½. I don’t know if it will matter but I do think this is it for the Chiefs. The Bills look really good and have seemingly solved many of their earlier defensive issues by getting several players back. The Chiefs seem to me to be running on fumes, luck, and beneficial calls by referees.
Last week
Season 55-61-3
Robert’s picks
Eagles/Commanders over 47 ½: Two things kept me from betting this line earlier in the week, waiting to see the weather, and a report on Jalen Hurts’ injured knee. Unlike last week there is no snow in the forecast, so it’s a go for me. Hurts is not on the injury report, but it was obvious at the end of last week’s game that he wasn’t moving the way he normally does. I don’t expect him to be at full strength and I’ll be looking to bet the under on his rushing props if the lines are not greatly reduced. Washington gave up tons of passing yards to Tampa Bay and Detroit, and the Eagles can get their share too, plus Saquan Barkley is the X-factor. But the Eagles have some key defensive injuries and Washington will put points on the board. This number was about three points shy of what I expected.
Bills (+2) over Chiefs: I know the folly of betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ friendly flags. But the Bills are more dynamic offensively and the stage is set for the Bills. If they can’t beat the Chiefs now, they probably never will. Granted, the last two teams I’ve said that about, Gonzaga basketball in 2021 and Purdue basketball last year, came up short. But if ever there was a path to a Bills Super Bowl championship, this is it.
Last week
College 0-1
NFL 1-0-1
Season
College 34-34
NFL 33-23-2
Temperature: 44°F Town: Fernley
Pressure: 1020 hPa
Wind: 1 mph
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