NFL Week 18 picks: You Think It Doesn't Matter?

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

Well, the Detroit Lions are worried about none of those things. Dan Campbell only knows one way to play - to win. And, in Detroit, Campbell’s way has been very successful (although to win in the playoffs the Lions will have to play MUCH better defense). Other teams have different approaches with mixed results.

This is a much different situation. The kindest way I can think of to describe the Giants run defense is sieve-like. Barkley only needs 101 yards to set the all time NFL single season rushing record. If I were Barkley and that close to a very pertinent all time NFL record, I would want to get it. For his part, Barkley has expressed a desire to play but, so far, a willingness to accept a bench relegation. 

Still, it’s the all time record…

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Denver Broncos are both probably in a win or go home game. The Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins must win and hope for help to make the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers, Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders and San Diego Chargers are still fighting for better playoff seeds. And the players on all teams want to win…don’t forget that these guys are professionals fighting for their professional lives.

So, even though maybe it’s not everybody all in, there is a lot to play for.

So, now that I have established that these games matter (more to some individuals and teams than others) here are my picks for Week #18 against the spread. Lines are from espn.com on Thursday, Jan 2.

Cincinnati Bengals

Atlanta Falcons (-7 1/2) vs Carolina Panthers: The Falcons play at the same time as the Bucs, but the Falcons control the scoreboard.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buffalo Bills (-2 ½) at New England Patriots: No Drake Maye? Oh, no…

Dallas Cowboys

Miami Dolphins (-1) at New York Jets: Too bad the scoreboard operator doesn’t block, tackle, or catch passes because the Jets stink at those things.

Las Vegas Raiders

Last week 4-2

Season 49-52-2

Buffalo and Liberty over 51: I haven’t bet many bowl games, because it’s difficult to know which teams care about winning and which don’t. Despite what fans think, a lot of coaches and players generally don’t think of bowl games as big games. For coaches the extra 15 practices are an early start on spring practice and setting a roster for next season, and for a lot of players, the bowl week activities, not the game itself, are the reward for their season. This line went from Liberty -2 ½ to Buffalo -3 when Liberty quarterback Kaiden Salter entered the transfer portal. But only eight teams in the country pass the ball less often than Liberty and Buffalo’s defense allowed 405.8 yards per game this season. Seven of Buffalo’s last eight games went over and now they get out of frigid Buffalo to play in the Bahamas. Points should be plentiful.

Panthers (+8) at Falcons: This is a textbook late-season situation that we see in the NFL all the time. One team is out of the playoffs, the other needs a win and some help to get in. But as we see every year, must win does not equal will win. Teams that must win in the last week of the season to make the playoffs are usually pretty mediocre teams, yet there is always a few points added to the line because they must win. The Panthers have made legitimate progress in the last half of the season and fit the profile of the kind of team that plays hard in the last game of the season. Overpriced mediocre favorite versus an underdog that will fight for 60 minutes in the last game of the season is a formula that pays or more often than not.

Dolphins (-1) at Jets: It’s hard to guess sometimes which teams are going to go hard on the last game and which teams are ready to head to warmer climates. The Jets don’t seem like the kind of team that’s going to muster a lot of energy for one last stand. I’ve filled my bucket five or six times betting against the Jets, I’ll dip it back in the well one last time.

49ers (+4 ½) over Cardinals: The 49ers are a shell of the team that started the season, but even then it was obvious something was wrong and I even told a friend way back in Week 3 or 4 that I didn’t think they were a playoff team. But even with a depleted roster they haven’t laid down, but just didn’t have enough to hold off the Lions last week. Now they end the season without Brock Purdy, but Josh Dobbs has said this is a big game for him as he auditions for a job somewhere next week, and the 49ers have young players like Ricky Pearsall and Isaac Guerendo who are trying to make an impression, and you know you’re getting a top effort every time from guys like George Kittle and Juaun Jennings. The 49ers will put points on the board and I’ll take the points in a game I think they’re better than 50-50 to win outright.

Last week

College 2-1

NFL 1-2

Season

College 34-32

NFL 30-19-1