Robert Perea and Jim Vallet, The Fernley Reporter
Normally Jim writes the intros to these picks columns, but he has some important stuff going on, and just sent me his list of (hopefully) winners for the week. So instead, here’s one of the things that flows through my head in the early morning hours when I’m too tired to work and too keyed up to sleep.
One of the things I’m fond of saying to my friends whenever something rare or unusual happens is “We just saw Halley’s Comet.”
About this time last year, when the Houston Texans were surprisingly winning games and C.J. Stroud was having the best rookie season for a quarterback since, I don’t know, Dan Marino maybe, a friend asked me “Are the Texans actually good?”
I had to admit, as the season went on, that yes, they actually were, which, considering how bad rookie quarterbacks in the NFL tend to be, was a “Halley’s Comet,” occurrence.
But here we are a season later, seeing exactly the same thing happening in Washington. Are the Commanders actually good?
Jayden Daniels may not be having statistically the season Stroud had last year, but the Commanders are 7-2, in first place in the NFC East and they have the second-best point differential in the NFC. And they haven’t even played the Cowboys yet.
Are the Commanders really the second-best team in the NFC? Are they legitimately good?
I can’t claim to know how the rest of the season will turn out, but I will say this – if the 49ers or Eagles had the Commanders’ profile, they would certainly be being talked about as one of the favorites to go to the Super Bowl.
That doesn’t mean they are going to contend to go to the Super Bowl. It doesn’t even mean they’re going to win another game. But the last time we saw the actual Halley’s Comet was 1986. I remember at the time hoping I live long enough to see it again, but that would put me in my mid 90s. But the metaphorical Halley’s Comet? I’m all for seeing one every year.
San Diego St. (-2 ½) over New Mexico: As a lifelong Lobos fan, this pick hurt to make. And as I’ve said before, at the pace he’s on, quarterback Devon Dampier is well on track to become the best quarterback in school history, if he stays for his whole career. But that defense. Even a pedestrian offense like San Diego St. has to lick its chops when they watch film of teams marching up and down the field. But the Aztecs have actually been playing better offensively lately. I love what Bronco Mendenhall is doing in Albuquerque and I have high hopes, relatively speaking, but this isn’t a team that’s ready to beat decent teams on the road.
Liberty (-11) over Middle Tennessee St.: The last couple of weeks have brought about one of my favorite situations this time of year – when undefeated teams lose their first game. When undefeated teams lose their first game this late in the season, a high percentage of the time, they lose the next one too. The challenge that creates is determining which teams, having seen their dreams shattered, will let go of the rope, and which ones will show some fight. I’m putting trust in the Flames and coach Jamey Chadwell. I think the Flames have generally been overrated the last couple of years, but Middle Tennessee is legitimately one of the bottom 10 teams in the country. If the Flames come with a purpose, they cover this, and probably fairly easily.
Navy (-3) at South Florida: Same situation as Liberty. Navy was undefeated until Notre Dame blew them out, then they laid an egg at Rice last week. But I know a Navy team isn’t letting go of the rope, so then the question just becomes whether they’re good enough to get this. Those two losses, and South Florida’s last two wins, have dropped this spread by at least four points. But those two wins came against bottom feeder teams. I’ll gladly lay the reduced price.
Oregon St. (-3) over San Jose St.: I had Oregon St. getting points at Cal two weeks ago, and that turned out to be one of my worst bets of the season. It was certainly their worst performance of the season. But I like to best teams that went into a bye with an embarrassing loss. They’ve had two weeks to stew about it, get yelled at by coaches, and be embarrassed all over again every time the saw the film. Basically, I like to bet on teams in situations where you expect them to show some pride, especially when playing with pride should be enough to win.
Steelers (+3) over Commanders: Even if the Commanders are as good as they’ve looked, this is a bad situation for them, coming off a division win over the Giants, with a division game against the Eagles on tap next Thursday, while the Steelers are off a bye. Mike Tomlin is 12-4 off a bye, and the Steelers are strong as an underdog. Part of this play will be on the money line.
Buccaneers (+6 ½) over 49ers: Christian McCaffrey may make his season debut for the 49ers, and maybe that’s enough to turn them back into a juggernaut. But otherwise, what exactly have the 49ers done this season to deserve to lay this price on the road?
Patriots (+6) at Bears: Same question. What exactly have the Bears done to deserve laying this price? Yes, this line is more about the Patriots than the Bears, but the Patriots seem to have more life behind Drake Maye at QB, and the defense is feisty enough to keep this close.
Last week
College 2-1
NFL 2-1
Season
College 19-21
NFL 16-9-1
Jim's picks
Denver Broncos (+9) at Kansas City Chiefs: Too many points for a struggling offense to give a well coached team.
San Francisco 49ers
NY Jets (-1 ½) at Arizona Cardinals: Maybe the Jets have found the formula.
Detroit Lions the ball. CJ Stroud has not looked good lately, his top receiver may or may not play, and the Lions are hot.
Los Angeles Rams
Last week 3-4-1
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