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Saturday, May 17, 2025 at 1:36 AM

NFL Week 4 picks: Business decisions

NFL Week 4 picks: Business decisions
Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter



I know Pierce is not an executive, but I think the term “business decision” being used in a derogatory fashion by anyone connected with the NFL is richer than chocolate topped by caramel. 



I could name more, but I think it’s clear that the NFL is a league that makes many “business decisions”.



There is very little thought to the players when teams make decisions. Who can help us win today and tomorrow, while yesterday is forgotten.



Usually, we do not know if a player is really injured or not when he misses time due to “injury”. But, given what we know about the NFL’s and team’s in the NFL’s greediness, can you blame a player for making his own “business decisions”? And, as someone who has experienced a much bigger player running at me at full speed with the intent of hitting me hard, it is hard to “stick your nose in there” time after time. I can’t imagine what it would be like seeing Derrick Henry lowering his head for a full speed smash into me late in a game we have already lost. Can you blame the players for “making business decisions?”



Speaking of business decisions and doing the right thing, maybe Fernley Reporter Editor Robert Perea should make a business decision about my terrible record picking games and dump my butt. I really thought it couldn’t get any worse after going 5-10 in the first two weeks. But, under the heading of “it can always get worse”, last week I went 0-4-1. From 33% correct to 0% correct. This week, the old adage is wrong, however, because it can’t get any worse than 0% right.



Dallas Cowboys (-5 ½) at NY Giants: If the Cowboys have anything at all, if they are going to do anything at all this season, they will win this game. The Cowboys have owned the Giants at home and away the last few years. The line on this one opened at 4 ½ and some books have it at 6 already, but when the Cowboys win the point spread doesn't matter.

New Orleans Saints

Cincinnati Bengals (-4 ½) at Carolina Panthers: I stand by my statement of last week: The Panthers would stink if they had Patrick Mahomes at QB. Unfortunately, the Panthers have Andy Dalton.

Chicago Bears

LV Raiders (-1) vs Cleveland Browns: If the Raiders players are smart, they will heed their coach’s words and make their own business decisions this week.

Tennessee Titans

Last week 0-4-1

Season 5-14-1
Robert’s picks:
East Carolina (-3 ½) over UTSA: Two weeks ago, East Carolina jumped ahead of Appalachian St. 16-0 in the first quarter, and lost. Last week, they took a 17-0 lead on Liberty, and lost. So why the faith in the Pirates? I watched both of those games closely (I’m an ECU fan, for what it’s worth) and they’re just right on the verge of clicking. With the frustration of those two losses coinciding with the first conference game, the motivation should be at its highest point, so I look for a focused team that’s on the verge of a breakout, to break out.

Navy (-3 ½) at UAB: In three games so far, Navy has scored 49, 38 and 56 points. They got 31 last year against UAB, when their offense only averaged 17.7 points per game. Nobody on the UAB coaching staff has any experience defending the triple option, and it showed last year even though Navy had trouble moving the ball against anyone else. I doubt if they’ve figured it out since then, and even if they have tactically, they rank 116th in rush defense so far this season at a terrible 4.66 yards per attempt.

Oklahoma (-2) at Auburn: Ordinarily, I wouldn’t touch a team that benched its quarterback last week and is playing its first road game this week. But the Auburn QB situation might be even worse. I said in betting Arkansas over Auburn last week that new Auburn QB Hank Brown might have played well against New Mexico, but Arkansas ain’t New Mexico. Well, Brown threw three interceptions against the Razorbacks and got benched for former starter Peyton Thorne. So Auburn coach Hugh Freeze said whichever QB has the better week of practice will start Saturday, but meanwhile, his former QB at Mississippi, Bo Wallace, ripped him on Twitter for throwing his QBs under the bus, saying “Maybe that’s why nobody wants to play for him.” Oklahoma has come a long way from the Lincoln Riley days of great offense and no defense. This Sooner defense is talented, fast and mean, just what two QBs with shattered confidence don’t want to see, and when a team with a rabid fan base is struggling the way Auburn is, home field becomes a disadvantage.

Bengals (-4) at Carolina: I don’t know where that Panthers performance came from last week. Maybe Bryce Young is just that bad, and Andy Dalton solves their woes. Or, maybe the Raiders just weren’t ready to play, took the game lightly and got burned. But the Bengals are desperate at 0-3, and I really like a Lou Anarumo defense coming off of being embarrassed on Monday Night Football. I don’t think Dalton will look nearly as good this week and the Bengals offense has been cooking the past two weeks despite the losses. I think the Bengals roll.

49ers (-10 ½) over Patriots: I not only can’t remember the last time I laid double digits in an NFL game, I also can’t find it on my spreadsheet, which means it’s been quite a few years. But this is a get-right game for the 49ers, who are coming off two straight losses and still have plenty of offense even with the loss of a couple of their key playmakers. But I’m even more confident that after blowing last week’s game against the Rams, it’s the 49ers defense that’s going to key this one. I think we see the best the 49ers have to offer on both sides of the ball, and if they do, it’s a two-score win at minimum.

Lions (-3 ½) over Seahawks: The Lions’ offense hasn’t detonated yet, but the Seattle hits the road for a Monday night matchup and faces a big step up in class from the Denver, New England and QB-less Miami offenses. This situation looks like the spot for the Lions to stretch their legs.

Last week

College 3-0

NFL 2-1

Season

College 8-9

NFL 6-3

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