Week 15 picks: Commercial knowledge

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

My wife says that I waste a whole day, and much of the night, by watching NFL football on Sundays.

I disagree. I think I learn a lot from commercials, although I will admit that much of  what I learn is trivial. Take last Sunday, for example.

I learned that Davante Adams has a Mexican fast food restaurant in his kitchen. Although a restaurant in my house would be cool, I wonder if Davante’s restaurant has followed this food chain’s movement towards shrinking portions and expanding prices.

I learned that if I drink a certain beer I will have more fighting spirit than if I don’t. Then I would have the courage to open a barber shop or spray paint graffiti on walls. But, this one at least has some truth to it as people I witness drinking beer seem to gain fighting spirit with each consumed beer. I don’t like that another commercial for the same beer infers that I would be popular if I fill up the back of my pickup truck with ice and this beer for everyone to share at a tailgate. I don’t know, but my experience leads me to believe that, should I do this, I would encounter more mooches than new friends.

I learned that Jake, from this insurance company (am I the only one who remembers that this guy was once white?) always knows the right thing to say to be cool. He can break up locker rooms with a single sentence. At the same time I learned that Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid likes french fries, hamburgers, and what he calls, “nuggies”. Also, Patrick Mahomes is a “bundler”. This company, which bills itself as a good neighbor, will not let you bundle home and auto insurance in Florida because it doesn’t sell home insurance in that state due to recent hurricane damage losses. I guess these guys only want to be good neighbors in certain places. Maybe a Justice Department investigation?

I learned that a certain company, which uses only letters for its name, is using artificial intelligence to help limit injuries in the NFL. With the rash of injuries this year in the NFL I’m not sure I would want to go that advertising route.

I learned that Frasier is back in Boston and that he doesn’t like to get Yaled at.

I learned that the week after the Super Bowl is “Premiere Week” on CBS, and that you can stream it all on Paramount +.

I learned that you can get deals from a sub sandwich chain on their app. I am very cautious of this company, because they used to offer deals on sandwiches during February, dubbing it “Febuany” (feb u any) When I tried to order a sub at this chain during February, I was told that only certain sandwiches qualified for Febuany. I told them they should be more precise by renaming the promotion, “Febusome”. They asked me to move faster. I am also leery of fast food apps, as they have a habit of working when the chains want to email me advertisements, but coming up inoperable when I try to order on them.

I learned a lot about betting sites that, I am told, I can download to my phone. I tried one during the Pandemic. If you live in Nevada you cannot download most betting apps. You can download apps from certain casinos or a company that does business in many Nevada casinos. But you must go to the casino and register in person, which defeated what I was trying to do and made me go to the casino anyway. I also was amused with the gambling warning along with a gambling hotline number that accompanied these ads. Kinda reminds me of the warnings on alcohol and tobacco products.

I learned that if I give my honey a ring from a certain jeweler, my honey will grab me and plant a long one on my lips as we tumble into a conveniently located swimming pool. If you want to kiss me, honey, can’t we do it on dry land? You still get to keep the ring.

I learned that Shaq likes huge pizzas loaded with a couple of his handfuls of pepperoni, and tiny cans of soda. I do like this chain’s pizza, but I hope Shaq makes mine because I like a lot of pepperoni on my pizza and I rarely get a Shaq handful. I remember when you could buy seven ounce bottles of beer, and that most girls loved them because they were “cute”. The image of Shaq eating a giant “Shaqaroni” with a tiny can of soda…

I learned that a wireless phone company is offering “Nada Yada Yada”. If yada yada is their term for bullcrap, then I’m all for nada of that.

I learned that next Saturday there is an NFL tripleheader on the NFL Network. I’m sure the NFL is trying to have me end up in Divorce Court because that’s where I’ll be if I watch games all day and night on Saturday and Sunday, too. I’m thinking that maybe I could get away with watching my Lions play at 5 if I agree to go to church at 4.

And I learned that there must be hidden cameras recording what I say, so that every time my wife and I disagree about who agreed to turn off the oven I can just throw the challenge flag and some guy who looks like our high school football team’s manager would pop up with video and audio proof of who said what. Even my wife likes this idea because she has told me many times that I’m always right, usually followed by something like, “and the moon is made of green cheese.” I don’t know what the moon has to do with anything, but I am almost always right.

As much as I love my wife and do not want to let her down, if she read this column she would see that I am not always right. My Lions lost. To the Bears! The Jets not only beat, they hammered the Texans. The Jaguars lost to a team on their 4th QB this year, whose last team, according to me, was the couch. The books were not wrong when they made the Vikings the favorite over the Raiders, although that 3-0 thriller did earn me a tie against the spread. The only good thing about that game is that my fantasy team’s opponent played Josh Dobbs at QB.

Here are my picks for this week against the spread. Please note that lines change. Last week, when I wrote this column, the spread on the 49ers-Seahawks game was 49ers -10 ½. But when I went to bet it on Saturday, the line had moved to 49ers -13. And, the 49ers won by 12. Lines are from sportsline.com on Wednesday, Dec. 13.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2 ½) vs LA Chargers: Can Antonio Pierce  get a win against a team not from New York? Drink plenty of caffeine and tune in to this certain Sominex substitute Thursday night to see.

Detroit Lions (-4) vs Denver Broncos: I don’t blame anyone for groaning about this pick. I would only bet it, though, if Frank Ragnow plays for Detroit. Check out NFL team records for teams’ 3rd consecutive road games. This is Denver’s 3rd consecutive road game.

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers: I really don’t like to get technical in this column, but there is a huge problem for Carolina when their offensive line is out there against Atlanta’s defensive front.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Green Bay Packers: Injuries have caught up with the Packers. Will Jaire Alexander, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson play? Check that before you bet this. I saw Jordan Love’s “different” footwork come back to bite him Monday night. Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have proven they can get away with hopping, moving backwards, and otherwise not setting their feet when they throw, and we’ll see if Jordan Love can.

New York Jets (+8 ½) at Miami Dolphins: A lot of injuries to Miami’s offensive and defensive lines. If Tyreek Hill doesn’t play and it comes to a “slobberknocker”, the Jets very well could win this one.

LA Rams (-6 ½) vs Washington Commanders: I would get this one early because I think the line will move and the Rams will be giving more.

San Francisco 49ers (-12 ½) at Arizona Cardinals: Remember what happened last week? Bet this one early.

Buffalo Bills (-2) vs Dallas Cowboys: The Bills are desperate and the Cowboys are on the road.

Baltimore Ravens (-3 ½) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Tough to run on the Ravens, and a lot of pressure when you try to throw. Tough to run on the Jaguars, but not tough to throw on them. And, Lamar Jackson is hot. Sadly, who can Jacksonville throw it to?

Seattle Seahawks (+4) vs Philadelphia Eagles: Something is wrong with the Eagles, and they’re giving 4 in a really tough place to play?

Last week 2-3-1

Season 41-45-6

Robert’s picks

College football’s bowl season kicks off with six games Saturday. I’m certainly not one of those fans who complains that that there are too many bowl games, but with so many players opting out to enter the transfer portal or prepare for the NFL draft, it’s clear that many of the bowl games don’t mean anything to some of the players. Likewise, if these bowl games meant anything to coaches, you wouldn’t see them leave their team for another school before their team’s bowl.

That means that to win betting bowl games, you need to know which team actually wants to be there. Look for teams that won their way into bowl games with a strong finish. If a team has a senior quarterback who is playing, that’s a good indication that team will be focused and prepared. A team like Cal, which last played in a bowl in 2019 but won three straight games to earn a spot in the Independence Bowl, is a team likely to show up ready to play.

Look to go against teams that have massive numbers of players leaving. Remember the way Nevada’s gutted team got blown out in 2021 after Jay Norvell left Nevada with a skeleton crew for the Quick Lane Bowl.

I don’t have an bets for the first couple days of bowl games, but if I do come across a bit of information that prompts me to reach into my pocket, I’ll update this here.

Meanwhile,

Bengals (-3) over Vikings: Jake Browning may be playing better than anyone expected in replacing Joe Burrow, but he was a legitimate prospect coming out of Washington, and he’s much better than Josh Dobbs. They say Justin Jefferson may play after going to the hospital during last Sunday’s game, but this Vikings offense is not to be trusted and this Bengals team can still legitimately make some noise.

Colts (-1 ½) over Steelers: The Colts almost never beat the Steelers, but the Steelers have played two absolute stinkers in a row, and even if they somehow play with better attitudes than they’ve shown the last couple weeks, the offense just isn’t going to get much going behind Mitch Trubisky.

Bills (-2) over Cowboys: Let’s see how the Cowboys red-hot offense does on a mid-December late afternoon in Buffalo.

Last week

College: No plays

NFL: 0-2-1

Season

College: 30-28

NFL: 23-17-2