Super Bowl picks: Commercials

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

I officially give up. I cannot win my battle with Super Bowl commercials. I will no longer attempt to give “expert” analysis of the game during the most important part of the game-the commercials. I will not get mad when people “shush” me during commercials. I will attempt to pay attention to and care about the commercials. I will laugh when everyone else does. If I have to go to the head (which I will still do during commercials) I will not make a comment as I get up from my seat and disturb my Big Game watching companions. I will not tease any dogs or children in my house during commercials.

In short, I will become a modern day Super Bowl watcher. 

So, paying homage to my newly declared state of not hating Super Bowl commercials, I have done quite a bit of research on Super Bowl commercials.

Wikipedia says commercials are a span of television programming produced and paid for by an organization that conveys a message promoting, and aiming to market, a product, service, or idea. And, statista.com says that the cost of conveying that product, service, or idea during the “Big Game” this Sunday will average $8 million for just 30 seconds!

The cost must be worth it, because the cost to get your message out has been rising steadily to this year’s highest ever. But, who can forget, “Where’s the Beef?”, talking babies, the kid starting the car seemingly by magic, the new Pepsi can causing a bigger stir than Cindy Crawford while she was drinking from it, Alexa losing her voice, the game of HORSE showdown between Larry Bird and Michael Jordan, the frogs jumping on a Budweiser, “Wassup?”, Mean Joe Greene throwing the kid his jersey, and the dancing bears? These are all famous commercials that debuted during a Super Bowl telecast.

This year promises to have more. The one I’m looking forward to (kinda) the most is a reenactment by Billy Crystal and Meg Ryan of their famous, “I’ll have what she’s having” scene from “When Harry Met Sally” for Hellmann’s mayonnaise. AP is reporting that other commercials include Haagen Dahs sponsoring its first ever Super Bowl ad that includes several “Fast and Furious” stars, Chris Pratt and Chris Hemsworth in a Meta commercial, pickleball hustlers Catherine H’Hara and William Dafoe winning Michelob Ultras, David Beckham learning Matt Damon is his twin and they both love Stella Artois, Matthew McConaughey continuing with his “football is a food conspiracy” pitch, sloths moving slowly because it’s the day after the Super Bowl, flying facial hair in both Pringle’s and Little Caesar’s ads, a dancing tongue because Nestle Coffee Mate tastes so good, a young girl feeling better about her lower body because of Dove soap, and many others.

Rachel Jaiven, head of marketing for Haagen Dazs, says the price for Super Bowl ads is worth it because the audience is so wide, and that virtually everyone watches it. I guess she must know more than I do, because it seems to me you’ve got to sell a lot of extra jars of mayonnaise or ice cream bars to make 8 million bucks. And, your commercial better be pretty interesting too, because if you choose to use Budweiser’s products the head is always calling. And, what good is spending 8 million dollars if no one watches? Hence the celebrities, I guess, although I drink Ice House beer, which never advertises at all.

And so, this Sunday, the commercial better be pretty good because I do plan on imbibing my favorite beer during the game, and a catheter is not yet necessary. Although I have made a sorta uneasy truce (for now) with people who watch the Super Bowl only for the commercials, I have yet to see anyone wait for the game to start to go to the restroom. I’ll be in my appropriately named La-Z-Boy chair, with chips, dip, chicken wings, and shrimp as I watch this year’s version of the NFL championship game. Now that I know several of the commercials that are coming, maybe I’ll enjoy them this year. We’ll see.

And now it’s time for me to pick a winner. The Eagles were the #1 defense in the NFL this year, both in yards allowed per game and total points against. The Eagles running game is quite a bit better than the Chiefs’. Both teams have had their issues throwing the ball, but the Eagles clearly have the better wideouts. Many experts believe that the Chiefs will have an advantage at tight end, I’m not sure of that because Travis Kelce has looked slow at times this year and Eagles’ TE Dallas Goedert has come on very strong after his midseason injury. Although the Chiefs have a  good offensive line, the Eagles have a better one. I believe the Chiefs have an advantage in their kicking game, and it’s hard to argue that Andy Reid and his staff are one of the best to ever coach professional football. I know for sure that the Chiefs will be ready to play, and although I don’t think it will happen Sunday, the Eagles have several players who can kindly be described as inconsistent. And the biggest edge either team has over the other is at quarterback, where Patrick Mahomes is, in my opinion, the best ever.

The over/under and the winning side are tough predictions for me, so I will almost certainly focus more on prop bets this year than picking a side. It seems to me that KC cannot let Saquon Barkley beat them, and they will devote a lot of their pass defense on AJ Brown. So, I like prop bets that say Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith will have good games. Both the Eagles and Chiefs are forcing a lot of fumbles, and both teams have field goal kickers who are very good from long distance. For the Chiefs to win, they will have to have a really good game from at least one of their receivers. Which one that will be is a tougher guess. The Eagles can win without a great game from their QB, the Chiefs can’t. 

I think the Eagles have more good players, but some of those good players don’t always produce at the same level as their skill. The Chiefs know how to win, and someone always seems to step up for them. The Eagles have been a different (better) team since their Week #5 bye.  

When I’m in this position and I know I’m going to bet, I like betting on the better defense. The Chiefs have been very lucky this year on many different occasions, and they have seemed to have God (as well as the referees) on their side as well. My experience has shown that God cheers for the better team. I think (but leave my house out of it) the three-peat bid ends Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles over the Kansas City Chiefs.

Robert’s picks

Stop me if you’ve heard a similar story, but the last time the Eagles and Chiefs met in the Super Bowl, just two years ago, the Chiefs rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit and kicked the game-winning field goal shortly after a defensive holding penalty gave them a first down and allowed them to run the clock down.

Never mind that it was actually a good call, even according to James Bradberry, the player who was called for holding.

Whether it’s a lucky bounce, a friendly flag, or as happened earlier this season, a fortuitous doink, the Chiefs continually find ways to win close games. Given that I think this game will be close, there’s no way I can bet this game other than to take the Chiefs -1.

That 2003 Super Bowl ended up 38-35, but I foresee a much different flow to this one. The Chiefs are more methodical offensively than they have been at any point in their recent run of domination, and the Eagles have allowed just 16.4 points per game since the beginning of October. Outside of the Week 18 game when the Chiefs sat most of their starters, they’ve allowed 18.4 points per game this season.

I’ve already missed the best number, but I’ll bet pizza money on the under 48 ½.

I had DeVonta Smith over 4.5 catches and over 48.5 yards in the NFC Championship game against Washington, and he ended up with 4 for 42. Instead, Jalen Hurts has been looking to Dallas Goedert when he has to get rid of the ball quickly, and he had 7 catches for 85 yards against the Commanders. Given that the Chiefs blitz at the fourth highest rate in the NFL, Hurts will be looking to get the ball out quickly.

I’m going to come back with Smith over 4.5 catches at -105 and over 49.5 yards at -110 and Goedert over 4.5 catches (-120) and over 51.5 yards (-110). I’m also going to take Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown (-115), because if the Eagles get to the 1-yard line, you know the Eagles will use the Brotherly Shove, and he’s a threat to scramble for a touchdown at any time, especially in the red zone.

For the Chiefs, I’m going to take a shot with Kareem Hunt over 1.5 receptions (+155).  Hunt has 23 receptions in 13 games this season, and in his first two seasons in KC he caught 79 passes in 27 games. Aside from winning all the time, the Chiefs have come to resemble the late-era Belichick Patriots in that their individual performances, other than from the quarterback and tight end, are unpredictable. The lines for Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy are about what I expect, but behind them, one of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Noah Gray, or DeAndre Hopkins is going to have a big play and go way over meager totals, but I have no idea which one it will be.