NFL Week 9 picks: Hail Mary

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

The Catholic version of the prayer, “Hail Mary” asks for strength and for help.

In football terms, a Hail Mary has come to mean a long desperation pass, almost always at the end of a game or half of American football. The term goes back at least to the 1930’s, when it was mentioned by members of Notre Dame’s players and coaches asking for Mary’s help to win football games. When you think about it, since “Notre Dame” literally means “Our Lady” and refers to the Virgin Mary it makes sense for people around Notre Dame University to ask their namesake for help. Originally, it meant any desperate football play, but the popular meaning over the years has changed to the meaning of today.

There are many plays that, over the years, have been dubbed as “Hail Mary” plays, maybe the most memorable being Doug Flutie’s desperation Pass to Gerard Phelan against Miami University on Nov. 23, 1984. That play worked because Miami thought Flutie could not throw the ball far enough to get to the end zone, an unfortunate (for Miami) opinion that was dashed when Flutie threw the ball 63 yards in the air. On a personal note, I won money on that play. A “Hail Mary” that cost me money ($4,000 because it was my only loss on a 10-team parlay card) was Kordell Stewart’s 64-yard pass to Michael Westbrook on Sept. 24, 1994 that beat Michigan by a point. Luckily for my sanity, I did not know at the time that game would be my only loss as there were nine other games on my card yet to play that day. I even had a personal connection to that play- Michigan defensive back Charles Winters, #22 if you look at replays of that play, was a student of mine when I taught at St. Martin DePorres in Detroit. Charles was not a serious student and even teased me that he really wanted to be a teacher like me someday. Years later, I found out that Charles did become a teacher when his football days were over. Even more ironic, Colorado ran the exact same play on the last play of the first half but my man Charles (#22) intercepted that one.

One of the more famous “Hail Marys” happened in the 1975 NFL playoffs when Roger Staubach, “closed (his) eyes and said a Hail Mary…” as he heaved the ball, which was caught, towards Drew Pearson in the end zone to beat the Vikings. That play was not the last play of that game as the Vikings got the ball back, but were sacked twice in a very disappointing ending. 

In 1980, the Vikings kind of got revenge when Ahmad Rashad caught a last play of the game desperate heave from Tommy Kramer to beat the Browns. That play got the Vikings into the playoffs, and, if you’re interested, the team that got knocked out of the playoffs by that play was the Lions. In 2011, Eli Manning had his prayer answered when his desperation heave was caught by Hakeem Nicks, knocking the Packers out of the playoffs that year. Just eight months later, the Packers were again on the wrong side of a “Hail Mary” when the Seattle Seahawks beat them on a last second Monday night chuck and hope. That play is frequently called “The Fail Mary” because the substitute officials who were subbing for the striking regular refs were signaling contradictory outcomes at the conclusion of the play. Proving revenge is a dish best served cold, three years later Aaron Rodgers and the Packers got revenge (although against the wrong opponent) when they beat my Lions in a Thursday night game on a very unlikely last play of the game throw. That win helped the Packers make the playoffs, where Aaron Rodgers completed yet another “Hail Mary” on the last play of regulation to send that game into overtime against the Arizona Cardinals. Sadly for cheeseheads, the Cardinals prevailed in overtime.

There have been many others executed by Aaron Rodgers (a couple of times) Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, David Garrard and Mike Thomas, BYU, and other equally lucky and talented QB/Receiver combinations.

And then there was last Sunday. 

Whenever a “Hail Mary” works there is always a lot of credit that the offense receives as well as criticism of the defense. Last Sunday was no exception. 

After the Commanders got all of their scoring via field goals, the Bears scored their second TD of the game and converted a two-point conversion to take a 15-12 lead over Washington with only 25 seconds left in the game. With no timeouts, the Commanders returned the ensuing kickoff for 24 yards, leaving only 19 seconds on the clock. An incomplete pass and two short completions later, the Commanders were still just short of their own 40 with 2 seconds to go. It appeared that Bears’ cornerback Tyrique Stevenson chose that particular moment to begin taunting Washinton fans, but actually, he started that sorry act a play before, as he and two other Bears defenders were for some reason lining up 75 yards away from the line of scrimmage.

On the last play, Commanders’ QB Jayden Daniels howitzered the football 65.9 yards downfield, it was was tipped at least once by a Bears’ defender, and deflected forward into the waiting arms of the only player on either team to be in the end zone, Commanders’ wideout Noah Brown. Touchdown, game over, Commanders win!

There was immediate controversy. Why did the Bears play such an extreme form of prevent defense, which only prevented them from winning? What was Tyrique Stevenson thinking, interacting with spectators during two plays BEFORE the game was over? Why did the Bears tip the ball up, instead of slamming it down? How was Noah Brown left completely unattended, behind everyone alone in the end zone?

I choose to look at the extraordinary skill of that play. Jayden Daniels threw the ball over 65 yards in the air, and it was very high. Try throwing an NFL football that is completely inflated over a telephone pole and carry for 66 yards. Can’t do it? Don’t worry, not many can.

My take is that it was equal parts luck and skill by the Commanders, and very bad concentration combined with bad defense by the Bears.

Way better than a game ending field goal.

Here are my picks for this week against the point spread. Lines are from espn.com on Wednesday, Oct. 30.

Buffalo Bills (-6 ½) vs Miami Dolphins: Although I don’t like giving 6 ½ to a team that needs to win, Buffalo seems to be hitting its stride.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1 ½) at Cleveland Browns: Will Jameis Winston stay hot, or will he again throw the ball to the wrong team? Although Winston throwing to the wrong team will happen, it might not be this week. Still, the Browns are beat up on offense and leave their defense hanging out to dry a lot.

Washington Commanders (-3 ½) at NY Giants: What does Daniel Jones have hanging over the Giants that they continue to play him? I keep hearing how tough Jones is and what a nice person he is. Well, I’m a nice guy, too, but that doesn’t mean I can play quarterback in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons (-2 ½) vs Dallas Cowboys: If DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons (right now, Lawrence is on IR and Parsons did not practice Wednesday) somehow play for Dallas, I would go with the Cowboys as Kirk Cousins is as immobile as it gets in this league. If they don’t play, Dallas will have to score with the Falcons, and that would mean scoring a lot.

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers: The Saints should have Olave and Carr back, and they got Hill back last week. The Panthers stink, although not as badly at home as on the road.

Tennessee Titans (-3) vs New England Patriots: The Titans got humiliated last week.

Philadelphia Eagles (-7 ½) vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence has no one to throw to, but he hasn’t proven he can throw to his team this year at all. The Eagles are hot.

Indianapolis Colts (+6) at MInnesota Vikings: Six points is too many. The Colts are a pretty good team when their QB isn’t giving the ball away all the time.

Last week 3-2

Season 21-27-1

Robert’s picks

Vanderbilt (+7 ½) at Auburn: I didn’t get the money a couple weeks ago with Missouri against Auburn, but it wasn’t because I was wrong about the game. Auburn only managed 286 total yards, ran for only 3.1 yards per carry, but earned a push against the pointspread because a Missouri punt returner fumbled a punt and Auburn recovered it for a touchdown. But here comes Vanderbilt, which I think is just a legitimately better team than Auburn, where losing by a touchdown wins the bet. Sign me up.

North Carolina (-2 ½) at Florida St.: I would much rather be getting the Tar Heels plus points, but the guys who make the lines don’t get caught off guard very often. North Carolina had a bye after their four-week run of mayhem and misfortune, and used it to regroup, walloping Virginia 41-14 last week. Meanwhile, the Florida St. season went off the rails in Week 0 with that loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, and they havne’t shown any signs of turning it around. I’ll take the team that has come out of its funk against the one that hasn’t.

Nevada (+2) over Colorado St.: Everything lined up perfectly for Colorado St. last week against New Mexico, and they did win. But it took a punt return for a touchdown and a New Mexico fumble at the goal line to make it happen. Nevada has lost three of the last four, but after being woefully undercoached the past two seasons, this should be where the upgrade they made on the sidelines this season should make a difference.

Chargers (-1 ½) at Browns: Jameis Winston plays a great game, everyone sings his praises all week, then he throws four interceptions. It’s just like Titanic. No matter how many times I watch the movie, the ship sinks every time.

Cowboys +3 at Falcons: As I scrolled through the lines, looking for which underdog seemed most likely to win this week, I keep coming back to the Cowboys. This looks like a spot where they’ll play with urgency, and the Falcons defense has been burned often the last four weeks. I sense an offensive breakout coming for the Cowboys.

Lions (-2 ½) at Packers: Two weeks in a row the Packers have let a late lead slip away and then settled for a field goal to win but not cover. I don’t think they’ll be so lucky this time. Whether Jordan Love plays, or its Malik Willis, I think the Lions take the chance to establish dominance in the NFC North.

Last week

College 1-3

NFL 2-1

Season

College 17-20

NFL 14-8-1