NFL Week 16 picks: It won’t happen again
By Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter
The last two seasons have been great ones to be a Detroit Lions fan. People I never met saying, “Go, Lions!” and “We’re on our way!” when they see me in my Lions’ T-shirt, sweatshirt, or jersey. Two of my more financially well off Michigan friends making plans to go to New Orleans for the Super Bowl. Vegas making the Lions the favorites in the NFC to get to the Super Bowl. Commentators and entertainers suddenly “lifelong” Lions fans. And, best of all, my favorite football team absolutely kicking butt while playing a very exciting brand of football to watch. Other teams wanting Lions’ coaches, and players wanting to come play in Detroit.
But, it could be coming to an end. To say the Lions currently have an injury problem is like saying the Titanic had an issue with an iceberg. According to espn.com, the Detroit Lions have more players on the injured reserved (IR) list than any other team in the NFL with 26. The average NFL team has 14.5.
Even though the numbers are concerning, even more concerning is the value of the players Detroit currently has on IR. Their best pass rusher. Their best run stopper. Their best cover defensive back. One of their starting safeties. Two of their starting linebackers. One starting offensive lineman. One of their two best running backs. And a plethora of other players that are considered role players, but necessary parts of any winning team.
Not surprisingly, some are jumping off the formerly crowded Lions’ bandwagon. The fantasy “experts” on both the NFL Network and ESPN that were (suddenly) Lions fans are backing off their support. This week, for the first time in a couple months, I see no mention of the price of Super Bowl tickets or hotel rates in New Orleans on my social media. Most of my Detroit area friends seem to be taking the glass half empty approach in phone calls, texts, and emails. Neutral “experts” on TV are talking about how difficult it will be for the Lions to reach the “Big Game”.
And, knowing history, I can’t blame them. The bad luck, bad decisions, and questionable characters that began (if you can believe it) when Buddy Parker quit as Lions coach the night before Detroit’s first game of the 1958 season, 8 months after the Lions’ last NFL championship seems to be continuing! We’re cursed! I knew it! What else do you expect?
These fair-weather fans remember the two record breaking (at the times) field goals that beat the Lions on the game’s last play instead of the recent game winning Lion field goals. They remember the awful personnel decisions of yesteryear instead of the smart recent personnel moves. They remember terrible coaching decisions and coaches quitting mid season instead of the current coaching staff. They remember players, either because their best days were behind them or because they never had any NFL best days, who failed in key situations instead of the current players who are good. They remember undisciplined clowns instead of the current focused group of athletes.
In short, they remember the last 67 (!!??) years of Detroit Lions football. I know the Bears, the Giants, and the Chargers have had some bad luck, but all of those teams, unlike the Lions, have at least been to one Super Bowl, and the Bears and Giants have won the big prize. I know teams have lost because of “double doinks”, “wide rights”, selfish players, dumb coaches, bad drafts, terrible officiating, and bad luck, but NO OTHER TEAM APPROACHES THE LAST 67 YEARS OF FUTILITY LIKE THE DETROIT LIONS. Period.
And now, due to injuries, it’s over.
Except, it isn’t.
I sincerely believe in the current Detroit Lions. Remember when no one knew who Brad Holmes was and thought he was a “Rooney Rule” hire? Remember when it was cool to laugh at Dan Campbell and his passion? Remember when Ben Johnson was not considered to be a top NFL head coaching prospect? Remember when “experts” (like me) believed Jared Goff was “done” in the NFL? Remember when most “draft gurus” thought Kayvon Thibodeaux was a better first pick than Aiden Hutchinson?
I do. While I do not know if the Detroit Lions will be able to recover from this unbelievable rash of injuries this season, I think the current leadership of the Lions will keep the Lions in contention for the foreseeable future. Even if the Detroit Lions lose their last three regular season games and then go out in the first round of the NFL playoffs, the Detroit Lions will be a force in the NFL for the next several years.
This year, the LIons will play the rest of the season with the heart and courage that we have come to expect for the last two years. Dan Campbell will see to that. If it’s enough to beat the likes of Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson this year, I don’t know. While Campbell and Holmes don’t block or tackle, they do get the players who do, and those players will bring the Detroit Lions back to the glory days of the 1950’s.
And when that happens, I will again welcome all bandwagoners. Even the ones who hop on and off the bandwagon more than a frog trying to escape the net of frog leg lovers.
Here are my picks for this week against the point spread. Lines are from espn.com on Wednesday, Dec. 18.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Houston Texans: The news today is Mahomes will play. I would take this one with this spread without Mahomes.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6 ½) at Baltimore Ravens: Games between these two have been close. I will bet it only if TJ Watt plays.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at NY Jets: While the Rams’ defensive secondary has not been good, their pass rush has. Aaron Rodgers does not move well anymore. The Rams will score on the Jets.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7 ½) vs Cleveland Browns: I predict that we see Jameis Winston in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys: The Bucs are on a
roll, and should be able to shred the Cowboys’ defense.
Green Bay Packers (-14 ½) vs. New Orleans Saints: The Saints are really beat up, the Packers look really good.
Last week: 1-4
Season: 41-48-2
Robert’s picks
Tulane (+10 ½) over Florida: I’ve written several times before that I make a lot of bets that aren’t palatable to a lot of people because of the possibility that if I’m wrong, I could lose in spectacular fashion. This is one such bet. Maybe Florida just overwhelms Tulane with SEC talent and blows them out. Certainly, Florida has exceeded expectations this season. Most observers, including this one, expected the Gators to have a miserable season and coach Billy Napier to be fired before the season was even over. Instead, they’re 7-5 and in a bowl game. But aside from outbursts against Mississippi St. and Kentucky the Gators didn’t score more than 27 points against an FBS team this season. Playing against an SEC team is a big deal for Tulane, and they run the ball well enough and have enough spunk to keep this game within single digits and maybe even have a chance to win it outright.
Clemson/Texas under 51 ½: Clemson put 34 points on the board to spoil my bet on SMU in the ACC championship game, but 14 of them were direct results of short fields in the first quarter off of SMU mistakes, and the last 3 came after a 41-yard kickoff return that set up a long game-winning field goal. Realistically, the Clemson offense generated 17 points in that game. Texas hasn’t allowed more than 17 points at home this season except to Georgia, and I think this game looms as a dogfight in the trenches.
Panthers (+4 ½) vs Cardinals: I’m still kicking myself for not picking Dallas over Carolina in this column last week, but at least I atoned for that omission by making a bet on it Sunday morning. But I’m reversing course here. That was a similar situation to the 49ers the week before, when the line swung way too far because of public perception. Now it’s the Panthers who are benefitting from a line. The Cardinals are 2-4 on the road, and both of their road wins, at San Francisco and at Miami, were by 1 point. Now they have to win by a margin, but I don’t think they’ll win at all.
Eagles (-3 ½) over Commanders: Hopefully this line will go back down to 3, but even if not, this is a smackdown game. The Eagles have renewed hopes of winning the No. 1 seed with all of the Lions’ injuries. Four weeks ago, the Eagles outrushed the Commanders 228-93 and outpassed them 206-171 and it was a garbage-time touchdown that got the Commanders within the final score of 26-18. I think they’ll outplay them in similar fashion again.
49ers (pk) at Dolphins: The 49ers may be having terrible season in relation to their expectations, but judging by the way 49ers players reacted to the De’Vondre Campbell situation, I think they’re still an engaged team, and if so, they’re just better than the Dolphins, even in their diminished state.
Last week
College: No plays
NFL: 1-2
Season
College: 32-29
NFL: 28-15-1
