NFL Week 14 Picks: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter

When my wife saw the title to this over my shoulder, she asked if I was writing a story about my old girlfriends.

Haha. They weren’t all bad…

While watching football over the past holiday weekend, I saw many things that made me feel good, bad, and disgusted and I couldn’t help but compare the weekend of football watching to the 1966 Clint Eastwood “Spaghetti Western”, “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly”. 

The Good (insert creepy music here)

University of Colorado football coach Deion Sanders finally became the first big time college football coach to have the, ahhhh, courage to declare that all his players will play in whatever bowl game Colorado chooses to participate in, according to The New York Post.

I have been critical of the way Sanders treated many of the leftover players he inherited when he took over as Colorado coach two years ago, but his stance on bowl games is long overdue. I know that colleges take advantage of their football players, and I also know that there are big names that have lost millions due to injuries suffered in “meaningless” bowl games. While both the above are true, college players gladly took the D1 scholarship, and that means playing in all games that you are able. Anything else is quitting, and isn’t that one of the worst things you can say to an athlete?

The Lions finally snap a seven game Thanksgiving Day losing streak.

It wasn’t pretty, but the win saved my old Barry Sanders Lions’ jersey from a one-way trip to the fireplace.

We had a great Thanksgiving with family. No political or cultural “discussions”.

The Bad

Watching the Jets lose again. I don’t know what it is, but something’s wrong with that team.

Seeing Justin Tucker struggle to kick anything through the uprights. Because Tucker has been so instrumental in so many Ravens’ wins, including the longest field goal on the last play of the game to turn a Lions’ win into a Lions’ loss, my initial reaction to Tucker’s travails was, “Too bad for him”. But, I feel badly watching the man who is the greatest field goal kicker struggle and cost his teams games. And, knowing if things don’t change, we won’t see Tucker kicking for Baltimore much longer.

I know I predicted that Kirk Cousins would not last the season as Atlanta’s starting QB, but I still feel bad watching Cousins do a poor imitation of his former self playing for the Atlanta Falcons. Compounding Cousins’ poor play in my football-watching eyes is the equally poor play of an even greater quarterback in his day-Aaron Rodgers. While there may be a good game or two left in the Cousins tank, it’s clear to me that the sooner the Falcons put Cousins on the bench, the better off they’ll be and the better I’ll feel.

While watching the San Francisco 49ers lose two straight games by 25 or more points, I couldn’t help but wish the 49ers had started this run of bad play in last season’s NFC championship game. But no, they were better (or luckier) than the Lions were in that game. In recent games, the 49ers have been neither better nor luckier than anybody. 

The Ugly

Penn State threw a TD pass to turn a 37-7 win into a 44-7 win on the final play of the game. 

Although Penn State head coach James Franklin feebly attempted to defend his team’s choice of running up the score, it was either terrible sportsmanship or total lack of control of his team. Either way, it is a terrible look for Franklin and if I could say one thing to him it would be, “What comes around, goes around.”

What is going on with visiting winning teams attempting to plant their flags on the logo of the home teams?

Michigan’s (to me) thrilling win at Ohio State as three-touchdown underdogs was completely overshadowed by the Wolverines’ childish (and stupid) attempt to plant their flag on the OSU logo after the game. Not only is this totally disrespectful to an opponent, don’t these guys know that you can’t plant a flag into artificial turf and get it to stand upright? The same (or similar) scene played out at the conclusion of the NC-NC State, the Arizona-Arizona State, and the Virginia-Virginia Tech games.

These games are just that – games. They ARE NOT wars. The players are not warriors, the fans are not armies and the coaches are not generals. This “war” metaphor has completely run its course and I would ask all losing teams that choose to fight after the game where all that fight was during the game. The penalties are not near severe enough to get this to stop.

When I coached high school, his team’s behavior was the coach’s responsibility. Evidently, it is not the same for college as I saw OSU head coach Ryan Day watching his team brawl, but doing nothing about it. To try to justify your players’ violent reaction to a very stupid provocation seems very sad and makes an ugly incident even uglier.

The vicious late hit on Trevor Lawrence by Houston Texans’ linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair was ugly enough. The brawl that followed made it worse, but maybe the ugliest part of the whole thing was that Al-Shaair’s coach and general manager both tried to defend their player’s actions. Texans’ coach DeMeco Ryans actually tried to blame the victim (Lawrence) for the cheap shot and General Manager Nick Caserio blasted the NFL for the three-game suspension Al-Shaair received. According to USA Today, Caserio called the suspension, “…bull****..”, and said people were getting the wrong impression of Al-Shaair. He also claimed that Al-Shaair had done nothing like this in the past, totally ignoring the 2 fines Al-Shaair the NFL has given to him this year alone for dirty hits.

I will say that the NFL’s rule on quarterbacks giving themselves up needs review and that the play happens very fast. But just watch the hit and judge for yourself.

I eagerly await the day when I can watch a rivalry game and not worry about what might happen afterwards.

Week 14. If you’re a fantasy football player, it’s Bye-maggedon, and I apologize for another unfortunate metaphor. Here are my picks against the spread. Odds are from espn.com on Wednesday, Dec. 4.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5 ½) vs Cleveland Browns: Jameis Winston has an absolutely tremendous arm that he has way too much faith in.

Miami Dolphins (-6 ½) vs NY Jets: All year, I’ve waited for the Jets to turn their season around. It hasn’t happened yet and this week will be tough.

Los Angeles Rams (+3 ½) vs Buffalo Bills: The Rams are desperate, the Bills may well have a letdown.

Chicago Bears (+5 ½) at San Francisco 49ers: Watch the 49ers injuries in this one, they’ll do better with some of their core players back. The Bears are getting better, and teams with new coaches frequently do better.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3 ½) at Kansas City Chiefs: The Chargers are beat up, but I think it’ll be a close one against a KC team that lets all games be close.

Last week 3-4

Season 37-42-2 

Robert’s picks

Jacksonville St. /Western Kentucky over 57 1/2: These teams played last week, with Western Kentucky needing a win to force a rematch in the Conference USA Championship Game, and Jacksonville St. already having clinched a berth. Western Kentucky won 19-17 at home with everything to play for against a team with nothing to gain. But this time Jacksonville St. is at home, and both teams have everything to play for. I think both teams will open things up offensively, and the total for this game is 5 points lower than it was last week.

Iowa St./Arizona St. over 49 ½: The Big 12 has been an offensive-centric league for the past few years, and since they started playing the conference championship game in AT&T Stadium in Dallas in 2017, the games have averaged 55.9 points per game. Arizona St. has only played three games all season that finished with less than this total. Iowa St. has played five games lower-scoring than this total, but only one of their last six. I’m expecting a shootout.

UL-Lafayette (-5 ½) over Marshall: If the playoff seedings were decided by pointspread records instead of whatever metric the College Football Playoff Committee is using, Marshall would be the No. 1 seed. (In fact, I propose we do that. Who’s with me?) The Thundering Herd are 10-1-1 against the spread. But media reports all week have said coach Charles Huff has accepted the job at Southern Mississippi. We have seen time and again in the past that teams losing their coaches in these situations don’t perform well.

SMU (-1 ½) over Clemson: Clemson backed in to this spot when Miami blew a 21-0 lead and lost to Syracuse. SMU has a top 10 rush defense, and I’m not a believer in Clemson QB Cade Klubnick. If the Mustangs stop the Tigers from running, then I don’t believe Klubnick can win this.

Oregon (-3 ½) over Penn St,: Until we see Penn St. and James Franklin win one of these big games against top-ranked teams, I’ll keep betting against them.

Vikings (-5 ½) over Falcons: The Falcons came just 24 yards short of doubling up the Chargers in total yardage last week, ran 35 more offensive plays than LA and didn’t allow an offensive touchdown, and still managed to lose. If they couldn’t win with all of those things in their favor and a huge scheduling advantage, how are they going to go on the road and snap a 3-game losing streak?

Bills/Rams over 49 ½: This might be a flat spot for the Bills, after winning the AFC East with last Sunday’s rout over the 49ers. But they go from playing in the snow and wind to perfect conditions in a dome in LA, and even in a flat spot I’d expect them to put some points on the board, especially against a Rams defense that can’t stop the run. Two weeks ago at home, the Rams lost 37-20 to the Eagles, I think this game will look something like that.

49ers (-4) over Bears: Maybe the 49ers season ended last week when Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Kevin Givens joined the half of the team that’s injured. Or, maybe that game was rock bottom and now they’re laying 4 in a game that would have been 10 just a few weeks ago. If you’re not Catholic, you may not know that St. Jude is the Patron Saint of Lost Causes. Back in the days when I used to work in a sports book, I used to keep track of the one team that everyone was betting against every Sunday and call that my St. Jude Play of the Day. This might be the St. Jude Play of the Year.

Last week

College 3-2

NFL 3-0

Season

College 29-27

NFL 24-13-1