Week 1 college football picks: What happens when you assume
Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter
Whether you’re the kind of bettor that uses trends, stats or tactical matchups in your handicapping, there is always a certain level of guesswork in betting college football, especially early in the season.
Even in the best of situations, football bettors are working with small sample sizes compared to sports like baseball or basketball.
That’s always been the case, but the transfer portal has made it even more so, such that many of the teams we will see in the first week this season will often bear absolutely no resemblance to what they looked like at the end of last season. It’s always been a matter of projection to try to figure out who will be improved or who will decline from the previous season.
But, just as it’s that much more difficult as a bettor to decipher those things, what still makes the endeavor possible is that it’s just as difficult for the guys who have to set the line.
All of that doesn’t adequately describe the concept I’m trying to explain, but one particular line on the board does it perfectly.
East Carolina last season averaged just 17.3 points per game and just 277 yards of offense, and that scoring average was bolstered a couple of points per game by defensive touchdowns and by a 44-point explosion against a terrible Gardner-Webb. The Pirate offense was as feeble, if not more so, than Iowa, averaging only 113 yards per game passing and 164 passing. Aside from that Gardner-Webb game, the most points the Pirates scored last season was 28 against Appalachian St., and 14 of those points came on defensive scores.
To fix that, the Pirates hired a new offensive coordinator and hit the transfer portal hard with two new quarterbacks, a whole new offensive line and several receivers.
This week, they’re a 33-point favorite over Norfolk St., an FCS team that was 3-8 last year.
That’s right, the Pirates are favored this week by more points than they scored in 11 of their 12 games last season.
There’s an awful lot of assumption in that line.
Phil Steele, the college football guru who publishes the annual Phil Steele’s College Football Preview magazine, has East Carolina listed as his most improved team heading into this season. That’s based on the presumption that new starting quarterback Jake Garcia, a transfer from Missouri, and his backup, Katin Houser, a transfer from Michigan St., will be better than last year’s duo of Mason Garcia and Ryan Flinn, and that new offensive coordinator John David Baker’s uptempo scheme is going to pile up the points.
That may well happen, but until I see it, I’m not about to assume it. I know what happens when you assume, and no matter how much I like you, I’d rather it happen to you than me.
The picks:
Miami, Fla. (-2 ½) at Florida: Every year the experts have been proclaiming Miami to be back, and every year they self-destruct. But this year they have transfer quarterback Cam Ward, who was sensational at Washington St, and at Incarnate Word before that. Florida QB Graham Mertz had flashes as a freshman at Wisconsin, but hasn’t ever reached that level since, and as much of a disappointment as Miami has been, that pales to what has happened to Florida, and I’ve seen nothing from Billy Napier that suggests he’s the man to bring the ship back to port.
Troy (-8 ½) over Nevada: I love betting against dry climate teams when they go to the South for these early season games. The gametime forecast for Saturday is 84 degrees with 70 percent humidity, and unless you’ve ever been in that part of the country, the closest you can come to understanding what it’s like is to walk in the bathroom when someone is taking a hot shower. On top of that, Nevada’s score against SMU was flattering for the Wolf Pack, in comparison to the stats. The running backs only averaged 3.0 yards per carry and SMU treated their passing game as a harmless diversion. Now this line has dropped 4 points because of a result that I don’t think is warranted.
Wyoming (+7) at Arizona St.: The Cowboys don’t flash a lot of athleticism, but they run the ball and play sound defense. Arizona St. program is still trying to recover from all the turmoil during Herm Edwards’ term as head coach. Craig Bohl retired as Wyoming head coach, but new head coach Jay Sawvel was the defensive coordinator there, so there should be continuity. Under Bohl, Wyoming turned games into grinders, and I expect the same from Sawvel, and this game should be low-scoring battle that Wyoming is in all the way.
USC (+4) over LSU: Speaking of assumptions. Both of these teams were explosive offensively last year and couldn’t stop anyone. Both are replacing Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks, both have new defensive coordinators. New LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier doesn’t bring the running element to the offense that Jayden Daniels did, but he played moderately well as a backup in 2022, before Daniels transferred in last season and relegated him to mop-up duty. New USC signal caller Miller Moss absolutely torched Louisville with six touchdown passes in a bowl game last year, and while he’s not the dynamic playmaker Caleb Williams was, he’s probably a better fit to Lincoln Riley’s offense because he won’t abandon the script. This game figures to be a shootout, but I think Moss is better than Nussmeier and I want the plus rather than the minus in a game that will probably come down to the last possession.
Last week: 1-1