NFL Week 1 picks: Changes
Jim Vallet and Robert Perea
The Fernley Reporter
Sometimes change is good. Sometimes change is bad. Sometimes changes have unintended consequences, like the changes the NFL has introduced in the last several years to increase offense that have, paradoxically, resulted in less scoring.
I thought a great deal about how much I have changed while reading about the latest edition of Burning Man.
I remember watching footage of the Woodstock concert in 1969 and wishing I had been there. A shortage of food, bathroom facilities, and privacy but no shortage of traffic, rain, crowds, and mud for some strange reason sounded like a good time to me. I suspect that the often reported notion that there was an abundance of what was then called “free love” probably influenced me.
Today, reading about the traffic, crowds, loud music, heat, playa dust, bathroom facilities, and sky high ticket prices at Burning Man got me thinking, “Why the heck would anyone want to go there?”
Back then, all the inconveniences were more than offset by the possibilities of partying and acting out fantasies. Today, I prefer hotels over camping, air conditioning over heat, quiet over noise, my wife’s cooking to hot dogs that have been dropped in the campfire, a bed over the ground, no bugs or scorpions over dealing with these pests, peaceful driving over traffic, riding my bike on pavement over riding it in the desert, and paying nothing over paying five to seven hundred dollars for a ticket to this “fun”. Besides, I have learned through experience that the chances of experiencing any fantasies, remote back then, have shrunk to none.
So, I admit that I have changed a lot over the years, and what I mentioned previously only scratches the surface of the changes I have gone through. Some of these changes are good, like getting up when I want instead of 5 a.m., being able to watch more football shows, being able to stay up late on weeknights, being able to afford vacations and having the time to go on them, and not being asked to help friends move anymore. Some of these changes have not been good, like the aches and pains in my body, being crabby for no reason, the way I look going from OK to dumping the mirror in the bathroom, less distance on golf drives, and having people offer me their seat on crowded buses.
NFL teams have changed, too. And the problem with that is while we focus on high profile changes that involve skill players, many past their primes, what really matters are the changes that have occurred where games are really won and lost-the offensive and defensive lines.
If you think you are knowledgeable about the NFL, and therefore willing to bet large amounts of money on the games this weekend, let me ask you a few questions to test your knowledge of what really matters.
The Chicago Bears’ offensive line was terrible last year. Name me two improvements they have made on the offensive line that justify the hype the Bears are getting in some places.
Who are the Philadelphia Eagles replacing Jason Kelce with? Is he an upgrade or a downgrade?
If you like the Miami Dolphins, have they adequately replaced the two defensive lineman that they currently do not have?
The San Diego Chargers have not been able to run the ball effectively for years. Now that they have a running the ball coach, how have they improved their offensive line that could not consistently open holes in the past?
Have the Arizona Cardinals improved their O-line, or will it be even worse?
And on, and on.
At least I am aware of the changes I am experiencing, but I really don’t know all that much about the changes that I know have occurred on many NFL teams. Considering that, I will be careful with my hard earned money for the next few weeks. Actually, if I was smart, I wouldn’t bet at all and just absorb…NAAAAHHH!
Ok, here I go, and here are my picks for this week. Lines are from ESPN on Tuesday, Sept. 3.
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs: This game will be close, so I will take the points.
Green Bay Packers (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: I believe these are two teams headed in opposite directions with the Packers headed up. This game makes me mad, though, because it is, “…available exclusively on Peacock” meaning I won’t see it. At least it’s not a playoff game…oh, right, that already happened.
New York Giants (+2) vs. Minnesota Vikings: A team with Sam Darnold at QB and a washed up running back favored on the road?
Atlanta Falcons (-3 ½) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe Russell Wilson pumping left, then pumping right, then pumping long, then throwing the ball 2 yards won’t hurt the Steelers, who did fine with Ben Roethlisberger holding the ball forever. But I don’t like what I’ve seen the last two years from Wilson. Plus, the Falcons finally have a real NFL quarterback. So Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson can finally prove they are as good as everyone says.
Miami Dolphins (-3 ½) vs Jacksonville Jaguars: I don’t think the Dolphins are as good on defense as they were, but I also wonder if the Jags can take advantage of that. And, I know for sure the Dolphins will score.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) vs Houston Texans: I have the over/under on Stefon Diggs’ first sideline temper tantrum at half a game. The Colts get their running back and quarterback finally playing together behind an excellent offensive line.
Dallas Cowboys (+2 ½) at Cleveland Browns: Before I went into the Air Force, I was a pretty good hockey player. Four years of not playing later, I was not. Before AF, I could change speeds as needed. After AF, I had only two speeds-the speed you skate around the ice during warmups and as fast as I could go. Deshaun Watson is not what he used to be for whatever reason. Although the Browns have a very good defense and a good offensive line, Nick Chubb is not playing and you would be betting Watson can return to form. For me, the form never returned.
San Francisco 49ers (-4 ½) vs New York Jets: The 49ers are great, no matter what the spread, when they have their key players playing. With Trent Williams signing, the 49ers have all their key players playing Monday night.
Robert’s Picks
Syracuse (+2 ½) vs Georgia Tech: Kudos to Georgia Tech for their win two weeks ago over Florida St. and then following that up with another over Georgia St. Now they hit the road for the third straight week as a favorite in a conference. Ohio St. coach Ryan Day may have concluded that he couldn’t win a national championship with Kyle McCord at QB, but I suspect he will do just fine at Syracuse, and he debuted with 354 yards passing last week. I like the upgrades Syracuse has made through the transfer portal, and I think they’re a live dog here.
East Carolina (-2 ½) at Old Dominion: I wrote extensively about why I couldn’t back East Carolina last week, although I should have disclosed that my one futures bet this season was ECU over 6.5 wins. The offensive changes I mentioned look to be legit, and they could have scored 70 instead of 42 if not for a turnovers, but I watched the entire game, and they weren’t the kind of turnovers that cause me long-term concern. Old Dominion’s weakest unit is its offensive line, and ECU’s strongest unit is its defensive line, which had 19 tackles for losses last week. The Pirates will paint this one purple. (Hat tip to the late Jeff Charles, their play-by-play announcer who coined that phrase.)
Appalachian St. (+17) at Clemson: Wait, you say. You’re just overreacting to Clemson’s loss to Georgia last week. No, I say. I actually had my eye on this game before last week, and I was just hoping Clemson wouldn’t get wiped out and ruin the line value. I heard a funny joke this week by Mack McCarthy, a former college basketball coach who is now a radio personality, talking about Florida State’s losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. Coach Mack said Jordan Travis being replaced by D.J. Uiagalelei at Florida St. was the biggest quarterback downgrade in college football since Clemson replaced Trevor Lawrence with … D.J. Uiagalelei. I don’t think current Clemson QB Cade Klubnik is any better than DJU.
Dolphins (-3 ½) over Jaguars: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 15-2 in the last two seasons as a home favorite, and the Jaguars have a revamped secondary with a new defensive coordinator. I don’t expect the Dolphins to hang 70 like they did in their home opener last season, but they should hit the ground running. Even if those defensive changes end up being upgrades for Jacksonville, I think it will take some time to get there. This might be the worst offense to face for an untested unit in its first outing.
Buccaneers (-3 ½) over Commanders: Jayden Daniels may well become a good NFL quarterback, but I’m willing to bet against him on the road in his first NFL start. As good at C.J. Stroud was last year as a rookie, the Texans got beat fairly handily by Baltimore in his first game, and Stroud was a unicorn in comparison to the way most NFL rookie QB’s perform.
Steelers (+3 ½) at Falcons: My third game was going to be the Cowboys, but what fun would it be if I had two of the same picks as Jim? So instead, I’ll go against one of his. I keep hearing about Kirk Cousins being just what the Falcons need to get ahead of the rest of their mediocre NFC South brethren. But do we really trust a 35-year old coming back from a torn Achilles? I have the same doubts about Cousins’ effectiveness as I have about Aaron Rodgers. And even if he gets back to whatever 100 percent will be for him, that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen in Week 1.
Last week
College 2-2
Season
College 2-2