NFL Week 2 picks: It’s Up and It’s ?Good?
Jim Vallet and Robert Perea, The Fernley Reporter
As I write this, it is Presidential Debate Day, and to show deference let me be perfectly clear that kicking a field goal or extra point is not easy.
I know this from personal experience. When I was playing squadron football in the Air Force, I decided to try to increase my playing time by trying out to be our team’s place kick holder.
The coach gave me a chance, and my tryout did not last long because it did not go well.
I knelt on my left knee, got my right leg out of the way, and put my hands in the position I had seen so often on TV. The first snap was perfect, but it was A LOT faster than I ever thought and the perfect snap went right through my outstretched arms and about 20 yards up the field. The longest part of my tryout came as the coach made me go chase down the ball to try again as the kicker and long snapper waited. Finally back, I assumed the holding position again, only to have the perfect snap make me look like I was holding a loaf of really hot bread before dropping it. The third perfect snap, I finally did manage to catch the ball only to put it down about a foot away from where I had told the kicker I would put the ball down. Our kicker, no doubt tired from two passes at the ball without being able to kick, tried to kick the ball from the incorrect spot, but the result was what looked like a squib kick.
“Next!” yelled the coach, and I returned to my playing life of punts, kickoffs, and being the second safety on a one safety defense, never to hold again.
My next experience with attempting to perform the whole place kicking operation came in my backyard with my two sons and a tree acting as the uprights. No matter who we had snap, hold, and kick we did not perform the operation well enough to send the ball over the tree even once. And that was without anyone like TJ Watt charging at us. We gave up and resigned ourselves to having to go for two after TDs and going for it on fourth down should a three man father-son football league ever come to be.
But the NFL is not squadron football nor a father and his sons in their backyard. NFL teams are REALLY good at the operation of kicking the ball through uprights, too good, in my opinion, for the overall health of the game.
According to Pro Football Reference, on average in the NFL, field goal attempts have stayed pretty much the same since the 1960s, but the percentage of field goals made has almost doubled. As late as the mid 1960s, the NFL average of field goals made was less than 50%. But the percentage of field goals made today is somewhere between 85-90%, depending on which source you’re looking at. I remember watching games as a kid and 40-yard field goals happened, but were not common. A field goal of over 50 yards was rare. Today, we see a field goal percentage of over 90% on 40-yard attempts, and field goals regularly made from over 55 yards. The clear trend is more field goals made from longer distances.
Last weekend, a record 71 field goals were made in the 16 NFL games. Only three teams (the Packers, Raiders, and Dolphins) missed a field goal attempt. Two teams (the Giants and Steelers) only scored points with field goals, and one of those, the Steelers, won their game! Two teams (the Steelers and 49ers) successfully kicked 6 field goals in one game. If you think this a record, think again, the record is 8. Among other factors, I believe that field goal kickers have become so proficient in the NFL that, according to NBC News, the average number of touchdowns in the NFL from 2020-2023 dropped more than a whole TD, from 5.75 TDs per game in 2020 to 4.69 TDs per game in 2023. I guess that really does prove the old adage that a bird in the hand is worth (almost) two in the bush.
If you like field goals (??!!) this is good news, but to me, it’s not. I have nothing against field goal kickers. They are people like you and me. But if you can’t skate, lacrosse, not hockey is for you. If you can’t return a 100 mph serve, pickleball, not tennis, is for you. If you can’t hit an 80 mph fastball, slow pitch softball, not baseball, is for you. If you can’t control your emotions, pro wrestling, not golf, is for you. If you can’t run, golf, not track, is for you. And, if you like to kick inflated balls, soccer, not football, is for you.
The National Football League is so popular right now that I would not blame them for taking an “ain’t broke, don’t fix it approach”. But football is a physical game. At its heart is blocking, tackling, speed, and strength. NFL games are so close that, to me, it is wrong to have a game decided by a guy that runs like the referees and not like the other world class athletes on his team. Kickers are athletes, too. But they are soccer players, not football players.
As for my picks last week, especially if you followed them, I hope you took the rest of my advice and did not bet a lot of money. Most of my 5 losses (against 3 wins) were close, but how could ANYONE pick the Giants over the Vikings? I’ll be clear: My wife gave me that pick (jk, I did it on my own and have no excuse).
Well, I’ll try again. Here are my picks against the spread for Week #2. Lines are from vegasinsider.com on Tuesday, Sept. 10.
Miami Dolphins (-2) vs Buffalo Bills: Miami is tough at home, and this is early in the season.
Baltimore Ravens (-9 ½) vs Las Vegas Raiders: The line opened at 8 and everyone betting seems to be thinking like me. It’s tough for West Coast teams to play an early game, and Baltimore will have had 10 days with no game.
Carolina Panthers (+6 ½) vs San Diego Chargers: Carolina is a pro team (albeit a bad pro team) and they got embarrassed last week. Another West Coast team coming east, plus this game has moved from Chargers -4 opening to min 6 ½ right now. Steam?
Dallas Cowboys (-6 ½) vs New Orleans Saints: I originally wrote, and turned in this article, picking Dallas to win what I thought was a road game. But, it’s a home game, and the Cowboys’ home opener as well. Plus, like Miami, the Cowboys are really good until January.
San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Minnesota Vikings: I repeat, when the 49ers have their key players, only Patrick Mahomes can beat them.
New York Jets (-3 ½) vs. Tennessee Titans: The Jets have a murderous (read that, unfair) beginning to their schedule, but they will have a bounce back, especially if Will Levis throws the ball up for grabs against this excellent secondary.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos: Is TJ Watt playing? Yes. Take the Steelers.
Last week: 3-5
Season: 3-5
Robert’s picks
Florida (+3 ½) vs. Texas A&M: If you believe everything you read, the Florida program is in shambles and coach Billy Napier won’t make it through the season. In fact, I’ve read one prediction that Napier might be gone if the Gators don’t win this one. But I think they will. The Swamp is still a difficult place for visitors to play, and although Connor Weigman was a 5-star recruit coming out of high school and has had some good moments for the Aggies, I think he will be overwhelmed, as he was against Notre Dame, in this environment in a circle-the-wagon situation for the Gators.
Washington (-4 ½) over Washington St.: The Cougars hung 70 on Portland St. and blew out Texas Tech on the back of three turnovers, but they allowed 900 yards defensively in those two games, and most of their offense was quarterback John Mateer running wild. But Mateer has completed less than 50 percent of his passes so far, and that’s not going to work against the Huskies, who might not be national championship game material like they were last year, but are still plenty good. Washington has won 9 of the last 10 between these two teams, and covered the spread in 7 of them.
West Virginia (-2) at Pittsburgh: I’ve already been wrong about this game once this week, having laid 3 earlier in the week expecting the line to go up. The market was high on West Virginia coming into the season, but the bandwagon emptied quickly after their opening loss to Penn St. But the Mountaineers have a balanced offense and I think they’ll find a way to light up the board at least once more than Pitt does.
Air Force (+15 ½) at Baylor: You don’t see Air Force as this kind of underdog very often. In fact, they were favored in every game last year except their bowl game against Boise, where they were a 7-point underdog and lost by 8, and they’ve only been an underdog three times going back to 2020. Points should be tough to come by for both teams here, but as long as Air Force avoids turnovers, their running game should shorten the game and keep them in it.
Colorado St. (+7) vs. Colorado: Certainly Colorado has dynamic talent in Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn, but the Buffaloes can’t run the ball, protect the passer or play defense, and you can’t be favored by a touchdown on the road when you can’t do those three things. Colorado St. had last year’s game won until some late game mistakes sent it to overtime, but they will play with passion and they have a legitimate shot to pull this one out at home.
Bills (+2 ½) at Dolphins: I’m not as down on the Bills as the “experts” seem to be, despite the loses of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and others. Josh Allen connected with nine different receivers last week and the Bills were efficient on offense despite falling behind 17-0 to the Cardinals. The Dolphins have struggled against good teams the past few years, and I still think the Bills are a good team.
Panthers (+6 ½) over Chargers: The Panthers were far and away the worst team in the NFL last year, and they looked even worse than that last week against the Saints. But the Chargers looked terrible offensively against the Raiders, and just don’t deserve to be laying a touchdown on the road.
Packers (+3) over Colts: How much is Jordan Love worth? The Packers think he’s worth $220 million over four years, which is the contract they signed him to in the offseason. The oddsmakers apparently think he’s worth 8 points, because the Packers were -5 when the lines came out last Sunday, before Love got hurt on the next to last play of the game against the Eagles Sunday night. Malik Willis is obviously a dropoff from Love, but the Packers have weapons on offense, seven first round draft picks starting on defense and a great home field advantage. With just five NFL starts himself, I don’t believe a team with Anthony Richardson at QB is ready to be a road favorite in a tough environment against a good team, even one with a backup QB.
Last week
College: 2-1
NFL: 2-1
Season
College: 5-4
NFL: 2-1